30 Year Mortgage Rate Trend & Rate Chasing

by Jay Thompson on September 10, 2006 · Comments

in Buying Real Estate, Market Conditions, Real Estate, Real Estate Investing, Real Estate Terms, Selling Real Estate

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UPDATE: Please see this post for an updated chart (through August 2008) plus new charts!

“We’ve got to refinance NOW, rates are going up!”

“If we don’t buy now, we may not be able to get a good rate!”

I hear comments like this all the time.

Chasing mortgage rates will drive you bonkers. Yes, the rates for 30 year fixed rate mortgages are inching up. But keep this in mind… they are coming up from historical lows. Today’s rates are some of the lowest ever. If you concern yourself too much about locking into the lowest rate you’ll ever see in your lifetime, then you’ll never get anything done.The chart below shows the rate of a 30 year fixed mortgage since 1971. Note where we are today compared to the other 35 years this chart reflects.

Is now a good time to convert that ARM to a fixed rate mortgage? Maybe. Maybe not. Rate isn’t the only factor to consider in a refi. How long you plan to live in your home, closing costs, your personal and professional situation, all this and more should be considered. Consult a loan officer, CPA and real estate professional in order to consider ALL your options. Rates are important, but they aren’t everything.

30 Year Mortgage Rate Trend

 

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Historical Mortgage Rate Trend Charts
Historical Mortgage Rate Trend Charts: Updated through August 2008
The Fed Dropped Rates, Why Aren’t Mortgage Rates Dropping?

 




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  • hmmm ... so interest rates aren't high right now? :) Mind if I use this picture with a link?

    --Jim
  • This definitely puts the interest rate question in perspective!
  • Jim (and others) - Feel free to link to the chart. I am also happy to send anyone the Excel spreadsheet with the data and chart. Just email me: jay AT thompsonsrealty.com if you are interested. I probably won't be able to get it out until later this evening.
  • Ask for a good home loan mortgage rate quote first before jumping into any refinancing scheme.
  • Mike
    Charts are helpful. There are things that should be considered when looking at charts. An example: looking at the charts movement from 1973 to 1981 there is exceptional movement to the up side. In this period of time OIL was going up radically & AMERICAN workers could demand higher pay to compensate.
    From 1981 to 2007 there is big movement to the downside, it would appear, caused by lower wages. 1980 Reagan the signed amnesty for millions of illegals and symbolically busted unions, driving down wages ever since. With PRODUCTIVE jobs going to China & India it seems that wages will not be a problem.
    Since oil & wages probably caused interest rates to rise from 1973 to 1981, it beg’s the question, what will happen from here? Using the chart & history as a measure I’d say interest rates will be going down. Low paid labor force equals low interest rates in my estimation. There are other details but not enough space to discuse them.
    Thanks for the chart.
  • I definitely agree about interest rates not being anything. A friend of mine wants to refinance their home every time they watch the news and never take
    the cost of refinancing into consideration. If they don't plan on staying a while and are going to refinance next time they watch the news they'll most likely end up losing money on the deal.
  • terese
    Dear Jay,
    Please, forward the chart to my email address. I have looked everywhere for a graph depicting the historical trends in mortgage rates. I am a bit confused, however. My husband and I married in 1981 when gold was peaking. We bought our first home January 1984 when mortgage interest rates were at 16% plus. We were fortunate to get a 'First-time Homeowner' loan with a rate of 14.8%. The chart is misleading. It suggests that rates were at 12 to 13% in 1984. That is not true. Nor did they go down to those rates for some time. We would have considered refinancing if they had. We bought our second home in 1991 at a rate of 10.75% (with a substantial down payment). Again, the chart seems to be off... hence, my desire to get a better look. It could be that I am not getting a good reading from such a small image. THANKS for posting the information!
    With respect,
    Teresa
  • Terese - I'll try to dig up the chart, this was posted two years ago (which tells me what I really need to do is post an updated chart).

    The data came straight off of Freddie Mac's website. The Historical data is here: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm

    I'll try to get it charted and posted ASAP.
  • I forget that I did u[date these through Dec 2007. YOu can see those charts here: http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/historical-...

    Click on a chart for a larger image.

    I'm still going to update them....
  • You put the whole mortgage rate debacle in perspective. Its never about the interest rate. Is about the program and the affordability of the home. Interest rates are still near historical lows. If people are worried about paying high interest rates then they just need to save up more money as a down payment or pay for the house in cash.
  • good post and unfortunately now relative again. we are seeing interest rates of 4.7% in the UK. And now a super bank, not good for mortgages!
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