Comments on: 40,000 listings — what does that mean? http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/40000-listings-what-does-that-mean/ Phoenix Real Estate -- Anything and everything about it. Plus random musings... Now with Phoenix area MLS Listings Search! Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:25:35 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: On Chicken Little, Booming & Crashing, Insanity and Herd-minded Snakes at The Phoenix Real Estate Guy http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/40000-listings-what-does-that-mean/#comment-11184 On Chicken Little, Booming & Crashing, Insanity and Herd-minded Snakes at The Phoenix Real Estate Guy Thu, 26 Oct 2006 04:53:35 +0000 http://www.buygilberthomes.com/?p=75#comment-11184 [...] Jay - The Phoenix Real Estate Guy Oct 25th, 2006 at 9:17 pm Seth -Thanks for visiting and commenting. I’ll attempt to address your points one at a time: The Salon article: difficult to glean much from that, as it’s full of non-functional links. My calling the media “Chicken Little” when it comes to how they portray housing market news is certainly not original, but I didn’t borrow that idea from David Lereah. It’s simply a product of my overall opinion of the media in general. I try to avoid politics on this blog, so let’s leave it at this… my general disdain for the media began years ago with what is, in my opinion, their overriding tendency to go way left of center when reporting “news”. That spills over into how they report pretty much anything. But they are in business (for now) to sell newspapers, and sensationalism and headlines sell newspapers. The Phoenix Bubble Isn’t Bursting” article on my website being a product of the NAR: True statement, and it’s clearly marked as such. Do I provide a “counter”? Nope. Do I explain that it’s from the NAR and may be biased? Nope. Being clearly marked, I feel no need to point out who wrote it. I also assume my readers and site visitors have the intelligence to know that the NAR may be biased in their presentation. I don’t think it’s my job to provide, nor do people really care to see, a point/counter-point argument for every bit of data posted either here or on my website. Could my assumptions be flawed? Certainly. My quarterly reviews are a year behind: Correct again. I’ll get a new one up someday (though it will be in a completely different format). It’s been on my to do list for, oh about a year. You wonder how I have the time to update the blog so regularly and not them? In many ways, the website quarterly reports have been replaced by regular blog posts on market stats. I actually made a conscious decision to put less of my personal opinion (”Spin” to use your term) into the quarterly reports and just reports the facts on this blog and my site–so people can form their own opinion. I frequently provide basic market stats on this blog here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here. (I probably missed a couple.) I also provide listings and sales stats on the website. This page has monthly listings, sales, and days on market data for all of 2004, 2005, and 2006 to date, in addition to yearly summaries from 2002 - 2005. You may also be interested in the 2006 quarterly reports on the stats page. I didn’t write them, but they do contain some interesting sales/listings stats. [...] [...] Jay – The Phoenix Real Estate Guy Oct 25th, 2006 at 9:17 pm Seth -Thanks for visiting and commenting. I’ll attempt to address your points one at a time: The Salon article: difficult to glean much from that, as it’s full of non-functional links. My calling the media “Chicken Little” when it comes to how they portray housing market news is certainly not original, but I didn’t borrow that idea from David Lereah. It’s simply a product of my overall opinion of the media in general. I try to avoid politics on this blog, so let’s leave it at this… my general disdain for the media began years ago with what is, in my opinion, their overriding tendency to go way left of center when reporting “news”. That spills over into how they report pretty much anything. But they are in business (for now) to sell newspapers, and sensationalism and headlines sell newspapers. The Phoenix Bubble Isn’t Bursting” article on my website being a product of the NAR: True statement, and it’s clearly marked as such. Do I provide a “counter”? Nope. Do I explain that it’s from the NAR and may be biased? Nope. Being clearly marked, I feel no need to point out who wrote it. I also assume my readers and site visitors have the intelligence to know that the NAR may be biased in their presentation. I don’t think it’s my job to provide, nor do people really care to see, a point/counter-point argument for every bit of data posted either here or on my website. Could my assumptions be flawed? Certainly. My quarterly reviews are a year behind: Correct again. I’ll get a new one up someday (though it will be in a completely different format). It’s been on my to do list for, oh about a year. You wonder how I have the time to update the blog so regularly and not them? In many ways, the website quarterly reports have been replaced by regular blog posts on market stats. I actually made a conscious decision to put less of my personal opinion (”Spin” to use your term) into the quarterly reports and just reports the facts on this blog and my site–so people can form their own opinion. I frequently provide basic market stats on this blog here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here. (I probably missed a couple.) I also provide listings and sales stats on the website. This page has monthly listings, sales, and days on market data for all of 2004, 2005, and 2006 to date, in addition to yearly summaries from 2002 – 2005. You may also be interested in the 2006 quarterly reports on the stats page. I didn’t write them, but they do contain some interesting sales/listings stats. [...]

]]> By: The AZ Real Estate Guy http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/40000-listings-what-does-that-mean/#comment-1185 The AZ Real Estate Guy Wed, 24 May 2006 06:30:20 +0000 http://www.buygilberthomes.com/?p=75#comment-1185 Thanks for the article and link Frank! I haven't had time to digest it yet (the actual paper is 60 pages) but it looks *very* interesting... And I love seeing things like this is a paper on real estate: y = a ln[1+ g] + (1-a)y-1 + e Reminds me of my previous life in semiconductor engnieering! Thanks for the article and link Frank! I haven’t had time to digest it yet (the actual paper is 60 pages) but it looks *very* interesting…

And I love seeing things like this is a paper on real estate:

y = a ln[1+ g] + (1-a)y-1 + e

Reminds me of my previous life in semiconductor engnieering!

]]> By: Frank http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/40000-listings-what-does-that-mean/#comment-1174 Frank Wed, 24 May 2006 01:30:32 +0000 http://www.buygilberthomes.com/?p=75#comment-1174 Have you read the research of the two professors at Pomona College? Pomona College Faculty Research: April 2006 What Real Estate Bubble? New research from Pomona economics professors Gary Smith and Margaret H. Smith shows homes actually are undervalued in most of the 10 U.S. markets they studied. “Most of the country is certainly not in a bubble if you define a bubble as prices far above fundamentals,” said Gary Smith, who is the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College. “The average person in the U.S. is still better off buying than renting.” San Mateo County in the San Francisco Bay area was the only region studied where homes were overvalued, by 54 percent. Elsewhere in California, Orange County prices were about right, while homes in Los Angeles (11 percent under) and San Bernardino (20 percent under) counties still were somewhat undervalued. Beyond California, homes also were undervalued in Boston (12 percent under) and Chicago (17 percent under). Undervaluation was dramatic in Dallas (40 percent), Atlanta (53 percent), Indianapolis (65 percent) and pre-Hurricane Katrina New Orleans (46 percent). http://www.pomona.edu/atpomona/apr06.shtml Gary Smith is the author of more than 50 articles and several economics textbooks He earned his B.A. in mathematics at Harvey Mudd College and his Ph.D. in economics at Yale University. Margaret H. Smith, an assistant professor of economics at Pomona College, earned her B.A. at Yale University and her Ph.D. at Harvard University (both in economics). Have you read the research of the two professors at Pomona College?

Pomona College Faculty Research: April 2006

What Real Estate Bubble?

New research from Pomona economics professors Gary Smith and Margaret H. Smith shows homes actually are undervalued in most of the 10 U.S. markets they studied.

“Most of the country is certainly not in a bubble if you define a bubble as prices far above fundamentals,” said Gary Smith, who is the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College. “The average person in the U.S. is still better off buying than renting.”

San Mateo County in the San Francisco Bay area was the only region studied where homes were overvalued, by 54 percent. Elsewhere in California, Orange County prices were about right, while homes in Los Angeles (11 percent under) and San Bernardino (20 percent under) counties still were somewhat undervalued. Beyond California, homes also were undervalued in Boston (12 percent under) and Chicago (17 percent under). Undervaluation was dramatic in Dallas (40 percent), Atlanta (53 percent), Indianapolis (65 percent) and pre-Hurricane Katrina New Orleans (46 percent).

http://www.pomona.edu/atpomona/apr06.shtml

Gary Smith is the author of more than 50 articles and several economics textbooks He earned his B.A. in mathematics at Harvey Mudd College and his Ph.D. in economics at Yale University. Margaret H. Smith, an assistant professor of economics at Pomona College, earned her B.A. at Yale University and her Ph.D. at Harvard University (both in economics).

]]> By: The AZ Real Estate Guy http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/40000-listings-what-does-that-mean/#comment-1084 The AZ Real Estate Guy Sat, 20 May 2006 02:39:25 +0000 http://www.buygilberthomes.com/?p=75#comment-1084 Excellent point Mark! Builder's incentives for both new builds and specs are getting pretty crazy right now. Not only are builders offering incentives to buyers, they are offering them to agents who bring buyers. A year ago many builders cut buyer's agents commissions to ZERO. Now some ar eoffering 6, 7 even 8%... Excellent point Mark! Builder’s incentives for both new builds and specs are getting pretty crazy right now. Not only are builders offering incentives to buyers, they are offering them to agents who bring buyers. A year ago many builders cut buyer’s agents commissions to ZERO. Now some ar eoffering 6, 7 even 8%…

]]> By: Mark http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/40000-listings-what-does-that-mean/#comment-1066 Mark Fri, 19 May 2006 13:30:30 +0000 http://www.buygilberthomes.com/?p=75#comment-1066 For what it's worth I would agree with the idea of a resale market slightly tilted toward the buyer in my area. It's a completely different story with new homes though. I spoke to my builder's rep yesterday and he told me stories of spec homes going on sale (this weekend only kinda thing) for $100K off. That's a lot of coin *but* it's closer to the realistic price they should have been asking for in the first place. For what it’s worth I would agree with the idea of a resale market slightly tilted toward the buyer in my area. It’s a completely different story with new homes though. I spoke to my builder’s rep yesterday and he told me stories of spec homes going on sale (this weekend only kinda thing) for $100K off. That’s a lot of coin *but* it’s closer to the realistic price they should have been asking for in the first place.

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