Jay’s Opine: Home sales data for June was just released, and of course the media is all over it, proclaiming doom and gloom for the entire Phoenix market. Sales are definitely down, to 2000 levels, and that gets the majority of press. What doesn’t get nearly as much focus is yet another record has been set for median home value. The market can’t be imploding as the media would like you to believe if prices continue to rise (generally speaking). Yes, the RATE of rise has slowed, but as blogged here a long time ago, the appreciation rates we experienced in the past CAN’T continue .

June resale home sales fall to near 2000 levels
The Business Journal of Phoenix - 1:32 PM MST Wednesday
by The Business Journal

Another sign of the weakness in the local resale housing market, with June sales dipping to a six-year low.

The Arizona Real Estate Center reported Wednesday 5,460 recorded sales for June. This is the weakest amount since June 2000, when 5,020 sales were recorded.

June’s activity is down from the 6,870 sales recorded in May.

So far this year, there have been a total of 36,290 sales, while year-to-date sales stood at 58,030 at the same point in 2005.

However, Arizona Real Estate Center Director Jay Butler noted that the current level of activity is very comparable to year-to-date recorded sales in 2003, at 34,880 sales and 2004 year-to-date, 48,220 sales.

The primary news of last year’s housing market was the rapid rise in the median home price from $194,000 in January to $260,000 in December.

Although the median resale price in June set a new record at $267,000 compared to $249,900 for a year ago, the growth rate has been disappearing, with the median price being up slightly in May at $265,000, and $264,900 in April.

For June 2006, 14 percent of all recorded sales were for homes priced from $125,000 to $199,999, 44 percent for $200,000 to $299,999 and 39 percent for homes priced at more than $300,000.

Here is the city-by-city breakdown for June 2006 resales and prices, compared with June 2005:

* Phoenix resales dropped by 1,325 sales over the year to 1,725, as the median sales price held at $225,000 over the month, yet rose from $190,215 in June 2005.
* Scottsdale’s resale home market declined from 920 recorded sales a year ago to 465, however the median sales price jumped from $559,000 a year ago to $640,000.
* The Mesa resale housing market fell by 755 sales to 585, while the median price increased from $220,000 to $247,600.
* Glendale decreased from 880 to 430 sales, but the median sales price increased from $220,000 to $253,000.
* Peoria’s resale market fell from 560 sales to 250 sales, while the median price moved from $255,000 to $272,900.
* The Sun City resale market fell from 200 to 75 sales, as the median sales price increased to $215,000 from $186,200. Resale activity in Sun City West also fell from 90 to 45 sales, but the median sales price increased from $235,000 to $258,950.
* Gilbert’s resale count fell from 795 to 330 sales, but the median sales price increased from $291,500 to $330,000.
* Chandler’s resale market slowed from 760 recorded sales for a year ago to 380, while the median sales price increased from $275,000 to $295,000.
* The resale market in Tempe dropped from 270 to 160 sales, with the median sales price increasing to $298,500 from $245,000 a year ago.
* Avondale’s resale market fell from 265 to 120 sales with the median price moving from $238,000 to $259,050.
* El Mirage sales dropped by 100 to 85 sales, while the median home price went from $196,000 to $215,000.
* Goodyear declined from 215 to 90 sales, while the median price increased from $262,000 to $290,000.
* The Surprise resale market decreased from 535 recorded sales a year ago to 175 sales and the median sales price rose by $14,900 to $254,900 The Arizona Real Estate Center is associated with the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus. The center collects and analyzes data concerning real estate in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area.

More stories from the media. Note the negativity in the headlines…
http://kvoa.com/Global/story.asp?S=5144394&nav=HMO6
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0713resale0713.html

Jay’s Opine: Says a fellow Realtor in the Republic article, “I’m not saying we are out of the woods yet,” he said. “There is so much property on the market that it is a very strong buyers market. It has done a 180 turn to what it was a year ago.” Sigh…. yes, the market is totally different than last year. But sorry folks, we are NOT in a “very strong buyers market”. There’s about six months of inventory on the market right now. By almost all experts definition, that is a NEUTRAL market. It FEELS like a “strong buyers market” because it has CHANGED so much from a insanely strong seller’s market.

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