Jay -

Were you able to answer Kermit's question regarding which price brackets were showing the greatest depreciation? I am doing some research for my company and that would be some great information.

Thanks,

Jennifer

Thanks Dave, you gave us some things to think about. LOL I don't know who would expect to get a house for $100,000. In Saskatoon you can't even get a condo for that right now. We were thinking in the $200,000 - $250,000 range.

Hi Sunny,

There is some pressure in Tucson but not as much as in other parts of the country. While Tucson is not all retirees there are enough people with second homes in Tucson and a predicted influx of 33,000 people per year for the next 10 years to keep things going.

Housing in Tucson depends a lot of what your want or need. New construction is still going on and some very reasonably priced, but you have to be careful buying NC making sure you won't have to sell before the community is built out. Otherwise you will find yourself competing with the builder to sell your home and you will loose that one every time.

The high end market is steady as are certain areas of town Historic Neighborhoods, Catalina Foothills, the Northwest-Oro Valley area, homes around the U of A etc.

And it depends on your wants and needs 3 br, 4 br, etc.

The median sale price in July was $218,000 for a single family res.

Overall we have a 7 month inventory for all areas of Tucson. Plenty to choose from again depending on what you want or need.

Asking prices have been coming down over the last year, but sale prices have maintained a steady increase.

Can you find affordable housing in Tucson, it depends on what your "affordable" level is. If you want 3 br and 3 ba with a pool for $100,000 nope you won't find it here. If you can afford anything between $200,000 and up there are lots of options.

Hi Jay and Dave,

LOL Jay I know what you mean about our winters. I've been in SK all my life and I still can't get used to the winters, but your summers in AZ are no better. I hear from DH's relatives how hot it is and think sunburn. :)

Oh don't get me wrong. I think Tucson is a beautiful city. It's got a different beauty than Saskatoon, but the mountains are gorgeous there. And I KNOW it's not just retired people, LOL because DH's sibling are living there. I was just wondering if the job market made it worth the while to move down a country.

So Dave what is housing doing in Tucson right now? Are you guys feeling the pressure like the rest of the US? We don't know everything up here in Sask.

That's a scary, but not surprising graph at the top. What is the consensus about a bottoming out?

Hi Sunny,

If you drove around Tucson on any given morning you would be surrounded by school crossing zones and large yellow buses everywhere.

I'm sure these buses and school aren't filled with the children of retired families. : )

Granted there are retired people in Tucson. I would say there are probably more retired people in Phoenix than Tucson, statistics : )

Tucson wages depend on your field. We have a lot of medical, engineering, and defense industry here in Tucson. If you are talking about service industry, manufacturing, construction wages are probably lower.

But if you Think Tucson is a town where they roll the streets up after 5PM. It isn't. If you have any specific questions please feel free to contact me directly.

Dave In Tucson

Hi Sunny -

Thanks for stopping by! I spent a few days in Saskatoon earlier this year. Lovely city, though WAY too cold for this Phoenix guy! (I was there in the winter)

Sounds like you're considering a move to Tucson. So I'll defer your question to Dave Smith -- he's in Tucson and knows it far better than I do.

If I misread and your're thinking Phoenix, let me know!

Hi Jay,

I noticed you on the Saskatoon site and thought I'd come check out your blog. :)

Jay or John, my husband is from Tucson and we've been thinking about moving down to AZ since Saskatoon's prices have went so crazy. What is happening in your market? I'm sorry but I don't really have time to read up on weeks of blogs. Is there even any point on young couples moving to Tucson since it is mostly a retirement city? I know he'd like to move closer to his family but I'm just not sure if the wages compared to house prices make it worth it.

Thanks for any help. :)

Thanks for the great discussion gentlemen!

For anyone reading this that isn't aware, John is one of the "data gods" for Phoenix real estate and Dave is the Tucson wizard.

And Kermit, great question. I'm pulling some data because I don't know the answer!

I hadn't put that together about cash sales not being included.

John,

The one issue for Tucson is we have a lot of people coming to here to retire or buy a second home. Many of them pay cash for the home. Those cash sales are never included in the purchase only index.

I can see for much of the state this not being an issue, but for Tucson there are enough cash transactions to have an effect on the data.

OFHEO has talked a lot about the Purchase Only index in recent reports. Perhaps it's a reaction to the "competition" from Case-Shiller. The Purchase Only numbers are clearly more accurate in my opinion. Perhaps they'll phase them in as the primary numbers.

The Purchase Only numbers in addition to being more accurate, also have a lot less variation. That means the graph line is amazingly "smoother" than the line that includes refinancings.

It still only covers conforming loans but for Arizona that's fine.

Jay,

WOW I didn't take the class but found this site a week ago when quoted in an article in the Arizona Daily Star. I've just spent three days tearing into the numbers on that report and posting all week on the numbers.

John and Jay, did you know there are also numbers available that do not include refinance appraisals on the site. Called the Home Price Index Purchase Only.

John is right about the main report with the refinance data included, not just included but making up a significant amount of the data the Purchase Only numbers are a better.

It really is a wealth of information, to bad the papers try to use these numbers to create a negative image of the real estate market.

OFHEO is good.

I prefer the Case-Shiller index because it does not include refinances but it does include all sales regardless of price.

For refinances, OFHEO uses the appraised value and, as you know, appraisers can sometimes be way off.

Secondarily, OFHEO only includes sales with conforming loans which makes sense since OFHEO oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and that's where they get their data.

http://www.arizonarealestatenotebook.com/2007/08/...

In your market, what price brackets are showing the greatest depreciation? Are there any price brackets that are showing appreciation in 07?

Great graphs Jay. I especially loved the equation you put up there. Brought back some warm memories from back in the day. :-)

The OFHEO is a great website. I've always seen them referenced by various mortgage newsletter, I had visited a few times but never really dug around to get some really good information. Looks like is a gold mine of relevant information.

Not yet Jennifer, sorry. Duty has been calling lately. (a good thing) I hope to have something done over the weekend...

Jay -

Were you able to answer Kermit's question regarding which price brackets were showing the greatest depreciation? I am doing some research for my company and that would be some great information.

Thanks,

Jennifer

Thanks Dave, you gave us some things to think about. LOL I don't know who would expect to get a house for $100,000. In Saskatoon you can't even get a condo for that right now. We were thinking in the $200,000 - $250,000 range.

Hi Sunny,

There is some pressure in Tucson but not as much as in other parts of the country. While Tucson is not all retirees there are enough people with second homes in Tucson and a predicted influx of 33,000 people per year for the next 10 years to keep things going.

Housing in Tucson depends a lot of what your want or need. New construction is still going on and some very reasonably priced, but you have to be careful buying NC making sure you won't have to sell before the community is built out. Otherwise you will find yourself competing with the builder to sell your home and you will loose that one every time.

The high end market is steady as are certain areas of town Historic Neighborhoods, Catalina Foothills, the Northwest-Oro Valley area, homes around the U of A etc.

And it depends on your wants and needs 3 br, 4 br, etc.

The median sale price in July was $218,000 for a single family res.

Overall we have a 7 month inventory for all areas of Tucson. Plenty to choose from again depending on what you want or need.

Asking prices have been coming down over the last year, but sale prices have maintained a steady increase.

Can you find affordable housing in Tucson, it depends on what your "affordable" level is. If you want 3 br and 3 ba with a pool for $100,000 nope you won't find it here. If you can afford anything between $200,000 and up there are lots of options.

Hi Jay and Dave,

LOL Jay I know what you mean about our winters. I've been in SK all my life and I still can't get used to the winters, but your summers in AZ are no better. I hear from DH's relatives how hot it is and think sunburn. :)

Oh don't get me wrong. I think Tucson is a beautiful city. It's got a different beauty than Saskatoon, but the mountains are gorgeous there. And I KNOW it's not just retired people, LOL because DH's sibling are living there. I was just wondering if the job market made it worth the while to move down a country.

So Dave what is housing doing in Tucson right now? Are you guys feeling the pressure like the rest of the US? We don't know everything up here in Sask.

That's a scary, but not surprising graph at the top. What is the consensus about a bottoming out?

Hi Sunny,

If you drove around Tucson on any given morning you would be surrounded by school crossing zones and large yellow buses everywhere.

I'm sure these buses and school aren't filled with the children of retired families. : )

Granted there are retired people in Tucson. I would say there are probably more retired people in Phoenix than Tucson, statistics : )

Tucson wages depend on your field. We have a lot of medical, engineering, and defense industry here in Tucson. If you are talking about service industry, manufacturing, construction wages are probably lower.

But if you Think Tucson is a town where they roll the streets up after 5PM. It isn't. If you have any specific questions please feel free to contact me directly.

Dave In Tucson

Hi Sunny -

Thanks for stopping by! I spent a few days in Saskatoon earlier this year. Lovely city, though WAY too cold for this Phoenix guy! (I was there in the winter)

Sounds like you're considering a move to Tucson. So I'll defer your question to Dave Smith -- he's in Tucson and knows it far better than I do.

If I misread and your're thinking Phoenix, let me know!

Hi Jay,

I noticed you on the Saskatoon site and thought I'd come check out your blog. :)

Jay or John, my husband is from Tucson and we've been thinking about moving down to AZ since Saskatoon's prices have went so crazy. What is happening in your market? I'm sorry but I don't really have time to read up on weeks of blogs. Is there even any point on young couples moving to Tucson since it is mostly a retirement city? I know he'd like to move closer to his family but I'm just not sure if the wages compared to house prices make it worth it.

Thanks for any help. :)

Thanks for the great discussion gentlemen!

For anyone reading this that isn't aware, John is one of the "data gods" for Phoenix real estate and Dave is the Tucson wizard.

And Kermit, great question. I'm pulling some data because I don't know the answer!

I hadn't put that together about cash sales not being included.

John,

The one issue for Tucson is we have a lot of people coming to here to retire or buy a second home. Many of them pay cash for the home. Those cash sales are never included in the purchase only index.

I can see for much of the state this not being an issue, but for Tucson there are enough cash transactions to have an effect on the data.

OFHEO has talked a lot about the Purchase Only index in recent reports. Perhaps it's a reaction to the "competition" from Case-Shiller. The Purchase Only numbers are clearly more accurate in my opinion. Perhaps they'll phase them in as the primary numbers.

The Purchase Only numbers in addition to being more accurate, also have a lot less variation. That means the graph line is amazingly "smoother" than the line that includes refinancings.

It still only covers conforming loans but for Arizona that's fine.

Jay,

WOW I didn't take the class but found this site a week ago when quoted in an article in the Arizona Daily Star. I've just spent three days tearing into the numbers on that report and posting all week on the numbers.

John and Jay, did you know there are also numbers available that do not include refinance appraisals on the site. Called the Home Price Index Purchase Only.

John is right about the main report with the refinance data included, not just included but making up a significant amount of the data the Purchase Only numbers are a better.

It really is a wealth of information, to bad the papers try to use these numbers to create a negative image of the real estate market.

OFHEO is good.

I prefer the Case-Shiller index because it does not include refinances but it does include all sales regardless of price.

For refinances, OFHEO uses the appraised value and, as you know, appraisers can sometimes be way off.

Secondarily, OFHEO only includes sales with conforming loans which makes sense since OFHEO oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and that's where they get their data.

http://www.arizonarealestatenotebook.com/2007/08/...

In your market, what price brackets are showing the greatest depreciation? Are there any price brackets that are showing appreciation in 07?

Great graphs Jay. I especially loved the equation you put up there. Brought back some warm memories from back in the day. :-)

The OFHEO is a great website. I've always seen them referenced by various mortgage newsletter, I had visited a few times but never really dug around to get some really good information. Looks like is a gold mine of relevant information.