“Bubble Mania” — it’s here. You can’t escape it. Bloggers around the world post something on “The Real Estate Bubble” every hour. Just Google “real estate bubble” and in 0.30 seconds, Google will return 455,000 results. In 0.14 seconds, you’ll get 1,750,000 results for “housing bubble”. At this moment in time, there are 596 bubble related news stories that can be found on Google News.
A quick look (sorry, I didn’t have time to surf all 1,750,000 results) shows that proponents of a housing bubble outnumber the opponents about 4 to 1.
What does this mean? Heck if I know. Is there a bubble? As blogged here, I think it depends on how you define “bubble”. Will appreciation rates continue at the staggering rate of last year? Again I’ve already provided my opinion on that. (They can’t..)
Greenspan coined the term “irrational exuberance” in the crazy days of the dot com stock market. And there is no doubt that a lot of people lost a lot of money on dot coms stocks. (Ahem, ask my wife how much we lost on PSI Net, a now defunct ISP.) But what is often failed to be noted is that a lot of people became, and still are, filthy stinking rich from dot com stocks.
Few will argue that the dot com bubble popped. Some will say it exploded. I say it deflated. And like a deflated balloon, it CAN (and is IMHO) being reinflated. Just take a peek at these stock charts from the last five years (Google only goes back to the time of its IPO in late 2004). Would you be sad if you’d invested in any of these “dot com” stocks five years ago?
Markets, be they stock markets, commodity markets or real estate markets fluctuate. They rise, and they fall, sometimes seemingly on a whim. There’s no doubt the real estate market has risen, a lot, lately. And there’s no doubt it will “fall” (I prefer to say it will adjust). But the long term trend in real estate, just like in the stock market is up. And real estate, bubble or not, will rise over time.
Yes, some real estate investors will lose their shirt. Just as some will be filthy stinking rich. You don’t want to look back five years from now at a real estate price chart and say, “If only I’d bought then….” Do you?
About Jay Thompson
I'm a former real estate broker in Phoenix, Arizona, currently work for Zillow Group and am the founder of the Phoenix Real Estate Guy blog. I tend to drive too fast and scream at the University of Texas and Denver Broncos football teams. My two kids are smarter than most adults I know and my wife is simply amazing.
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