From the category archives:

National News

PMI Reports on U.S. Market Risk Index - Phoenix at #11

by Jay - The Phoenix Real Estate Guy on July 7, 2008

Last week, PMI Mortgage Insurance Co released its Summer 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index, which ranks the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years.

The bad news? The Phoenix real estate market has (according to PMI) a 79.6 percent probability of home prices declining over the next two years. This places Phoenix at #11 (and be glad you’re not in Riverside-San Bernadino–Ontario California which sports a whopping 95.5% Risk Index…).

The good news? That’s down from an 82.3% chance in Q4 2007. Overall, 35 of the nation’s 50 largest MSAs and 326 out of all 381 MSAs experienced a decline in Risk Index since Q4 2007. In other, more cheery words, there seems to be less risk of home price declines than when last analyzed in late 2007.

Interestingly, Phoenix and Las Vegas were the only “high risk” MSAs to show a decline in Risk Index. California in fact showed an increased risk in 25 of their 28 MSAs. Ouch.

Of note: Phoenix continues to show a very low unemployment rate (3.67% in this report). High employment levels (or conversely, low unemployment rates) are generally considered a positive economic indicator and bode well for housing demand.

This is an interesting report, jammed full of data. The data is also summarized nicely, though they do say things like this:

But the picture of home price performance changes significantly if the 59 MSAs located in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are removed from the total.

Statements like that are just beyond stupid. Of course things change significantly if you simply ignore 59 MSAs in the four hardest hit states. My college stats professor would be wanting to squish the numbskull that wrote that nugget.

Here is a list of the Top 14 MSA’s with the greatest risk of declining home prices:

Risk Index Top 14

Linkage:

Here is the press release.

The entire Economic Real Estate Trends report in PDF format is available — Chart-o-holic alert!

And finally, here is the appendix listing the Risk Index for all 381 Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

Go forth and absorb your daily dose of real estate statistics.

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Foreclosures Top 1 Million, Record High Oil Prices, Unemployment Up, Dow Down 400 Points

by Jay - The Phoenix Real Estate Guy on June 6, 2008

Wowsa. It’s been a pretty brutal day for economic news:

Foreclosures Hit Record High

“Hysteria” Drives Oil to Record High

Unemployment Up Sharply Nationwide (held its own in Arizona by the way)

As such, the stock market took a pounding today, with the Dow losing 395 points (All the broad market indexes were down about 3% today).

I’m a bit of a news junkie. As I was reading through report after report of today’s economic news I did manage to come across one gem of an article.

No, it’s not good news — not by any stretch of the imagination. But it’s got important information related to home foreclosures, which have hit Arizona particularly hard (per RealtyTrac, Arizona ranked 3^rd in the nation in foreclosure activity in April, up from 4th in March).

CNN Money published this article yesterday, “The Trick to Getting A Mortgage Fixed”.

The title is misleading — there is no trick. It takes a lot of work, sacrifice, and some luck. And the fact is, not all loans can be adjusted or modified no matter what you do or who you talk to.

Misleading title aside, there is some great information in this article. It can help educate you in the loan modification process from the lenders and mortgage investors perspective and provides helpful tips and suggestions.

With so many folks facing foreclosure, we’re going to try to run some articles on how to reduce the risk of foreclosure. We provided some resources and phone numbers for free housing counseling earlier in the week, and will continue to post other items as we come across them and time permits.

Remember, the most important thing you can do if you start getting in trouble with your mortgage payments is talk to your lender. The sooner the better. Don’t ignore it, and don’t be ashamed to reach out for help. Lots of people are in this situation.

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Couple Sues Google for “Street View” Invasion of Privacy

by Jay - The Phoenix Real Estate Guy on April 4, 2008

I mentioned back in October that Google’s “Street View” was rolling out in Phoenix. Street View allows web users to “navigate” Google Maps and view 360–degree panoramic images.

In that post I briefly touched on the privacy concerns some folks have with Street View. Now The Smoking Gun reports a Pittsburgh couple has filed a lawsuit against Google alleging Street View of an “intentional and/or grossly reckless invasion” of their seclusion and privacy since they live on a street that is “clearly marked with a ‘Private Road’ sign.”

Huh. Somehow I think the Boring’s (the plaintiffs) have just done far more toward disturbing their privacy than Google’s fuzzy photos would ever accomplish.

They are seeking a judgment “in excess of twenty-five thousand dollars for compensatory, incidental and consequential damages, punitive damages, costs, all allowable attorneys’ fees and all other damages deemed to be just”.

Who knows what will come out of this one…

Hat tip to WebProNews.

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Home Buyer Suing Agent: Ummel v. Little Update

by Jay - The Phoenix Real Estate Guy on March 31, 2008

Back in January I wrote, On Buyers Suing Agents — an article about California home buyers Marty and Vernon Ummel suing their real state agent Michael Little and his RE/Max brokerage. The Ummels claim Little “defrauded them when he failed to inform them that similar houses on the same block were selling for more than $100,000 less than what the Ummels had paid”.

Today the San Diego Union Tribune reports that jury selection in the trial begins tomorrow – which coincidentally happens to be April Fool’s Day…

While it appears that most “legal experts” don’t think this case has much merit, it will be interesting to follow. We’ll bring you whatever we can dig up.

More info:

The original New York Times coverage.

Here are the Ummels in a Today show segment:

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Bear Stearns Collapse: $159/share to $2 in 365 Days

by Jay - The Phoenix Real Estate Guy on March 17, 2008

There is a ton of buzz out there today about the collapse of Bear Stearns.

Some may be asking, “What is a Bear Stearns?”

From their web page:

The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. (NYSE: BSC) is the parent company of Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc., a leading global investment banking, securities trading and brokerage firm.

From MSN Money:

Bear Stearns “is an investment banking, securities and derivatives trading, clearance and brokerage firm serving corporations, governments, institutional and individual investors globally. The segments of the Company are capital markets, global clearing services and wealth management.”

What happened? This article explores it well. (Hat tip to Shailesh)

I’m a visual learning sort of guy. Here in all its gore is a Bear Stearns stock chart from the last 12 months: