Above is an actual notification we received yesterday (contact info redacted and emphasis mine).

This post isn’t a rant about part-time real estate agents. Let’s face it, the Phoenix real estate market – along with much of the country – has been pretty rough of late. Many agents have left the business altogether. Others have picked up part-time jobs. And there is nothing ever wrong with having multiple income streams (heck, I do).

I know some brilliant agents that have second jobs. Those that handle it well have plans and systems to cover for them when they are not available for real estate. Maybe it’s a partner or team member. Maybe they are selective about the clients they take on, or the areas they work. Those that handle it well place real estate first, and their other job second.

But when the real estate sales job takes a distant second, when you can only help someone in the evenings – and apparently not on a Sunday – when you have no plan to have your client covered 24 x 7, then it is the client that suffers.

The person that sent in this showing request assumed this was our listing. It happens all the time. Someone searches for homes on one of our sites and doesn’t realize that we display all the homes available for sale, not just homes we have listed. Had this been one of our listings, of course we would have arranged to show it. But it’s not, and this person is already working with an agent so we can’t show it.

(And for the record, we would not expect someone in an existing agency relationship to give that up if we were to show one of our listings. In fact, I don’t like to serve as a “dual agent” – representing both the buyer and seller in the same transaction – so I’d encourage this person to work with their agent. There are however, some listing agents that would try to undercut the buyer’s agent. Believe me, it happens all the time.)

Here we have a home buyer that is obviously very flexible, and is interested in a $180,000 home. An ideal client by any definition. Yet they are searching for homes on a site that doesn’t belong to their own agent, and they are reaching out to what they think is the listing agent, trying to view a home they are interested in. They are setting up their own showing appointments.

What is their agent doing?

Working some other job I guess. It’s plainly evident that the agent they are using doesn’t have a home search enabled web site, nor have they instructed their client on the potential issues of dealing directly with the listing agent. It looks safe to assume the agent has not set their client up on a dedicated “client portal” that the MLS provides.

It makes one wonder what else they aren’t doing for their client.

How many potential homes is this buyer going to miss out on because their agent isn’t available? What happens when this buyer calls a listing agent that has no problem “stealing” them from their current agent? How is this evenings-only agent going to be present during the day for an inspection? How are they going to be at the title company for document signing? What if they do get under contract and something goes wonky with the inspections, the escrow, the appraisal, the lender, or any of the other dozens of things that can jeopardize a real estate transaction? Will the part time, no coverage in place “agent” be able to get away from his “real job” in order to hold the transaction together?

For his client’s sake, I hope so.

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In Search of The Perfect Close

The Home Buying Process: Part 2

Experimental Business Card #1

“Listing Success Rate” is defined as, “the percentage of listings that closed with a sale rather than expiring or being canceled”. It compares the number of listings sold this month with the number of listings that were sold, expired or canceled in the same period.

At this moment in time, the Phoenix real estate market is running at about a 60% listing success rate. In other words, 60% of all listings are sold.

What happens to the other 40%?

In a nutshell, they aren’t sold. The listing either expires, or is cancelled, or in the case of many short sale listings, is foreclosed on (and most likely re-listed at some point later as a lender owned (aka “REO”) property).

So is 60% “good”? It depends on your perspective. If you are trying to sell a home, you want to see Listing Success Rate as high as possible. If you are buying a home, a higher rate means (generally speaking) that their is more competition for available listings. More competition for the buyer means less negotiating power, and increased potential for multiple offer situations.

Historically speaking, a 60% listing success rate is quite high. My stats service only tracks this particular metric back to February 2006, and the current Listing Success Rate matches the high of March 2006.

Here is the historical data:

 
But wait, let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

The critical reviewer of real estate statistics would be asking themselves, “why the big increase in Listing Success Rate 2009?” A very reasonable question.

Currently, the Phoenix real estate market is heavily influenced by “distressed properties”. Distressed in this case means lender owned foreclosures and pre-foreclosure (short sale) properties, not distressed as in the pissed off owner has trashed the home and ripped out the fixtures, flooring and appliances (though believe me, that happens). Distressed listings currently make up almost half of the available listings and in most parts of the Phoenix metro area compose a significant proportion of sales (see the Distressed Sales chart posted last week for the gory details).
 
As anyone that has tried to buy a bank owned home will tell you, they are moving very quickly. It is the norm, not the exception, to see new bank owned listings get multiple offers within days of coming on the market.

Here is the Listing Success Rate for each major market segment (as of Saturday May 23):

• Lender Owned Properties – 89.8%
• Pre-foreclosures (short sales) – 36.6%
• “Normal” (not lender owned or short sales) – 40.6%

So there is your reason for the sharp increase in overall Listing Success Rate. Almost 90% of lender owned property listings end in a sale. Only 40% of “normal” listings end in a sale.

This market segment breakdown is why I sometimes struggle with the reports and indexes often quoted in the mainstream media and elsewhere. When you break down these overall market aggregated numbers into individual components, they often tell a very different story. It would be easy for a seller in a “normal” situation to see the graph posted above and begin a Happy Dance. The astute normal seller (who hopefully has an astute agent working for them) would note that their market segment isn’t performing quite so well when is comes to Listing Success Rate. Factor in other considerations, such as location, price range, condition, the number of surrounding distressed listings, etc. and you can find yourself in a very different situation than the broad-based metrics may indicate.

It’s a great trend and clearly is better than if the line were going in the other direction, but as always look at all real estate statistics with a critical eye and consider all the factors that compose the metric(s) you are investigating.

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Tables and charts from The Cromford Report using data from public records and  data licensed from the Arizona Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS). Cromford Associates LLC, ARMLS and yours truly, Jay Thompson, expressly disclaim and make no representations or warranties of any kind – express, implied or statutory – as to the accuracy of the data, nor its merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.

In other less legal-like words, if you use this data to make personal, business or investment decisions and something blows up, it’s not our fault and you can’t sue us.

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Related Articles at The Phoenix Real Estate Guy:

Gilbert Real Estate: Listing and Sales Stats - Sept 18

Phoenix & East Valley Real Estate Stats: June 2007

Phoenix MLS Listings & Sales Stats for May 2006

Let’s take a look at “Days on Market” (DOM), or “inventory”, or “months supply”. Whatever you prefer to call it, it is an oft cited indicator of overall market conditions. And generally speaking, it’s not a bad indicator. The supply of homes available for sale is a key component in understanding the overall real estate market conditions.

It is important to understand a few things though:

• Our current market really consists of three major categories of inventory: 1) Bank/lender owned homes (also known as REOs); 2) pre-foreclosure/ short sale properties; and 3) “normal” properties (homes that are owner/investor owned and not in  a pre-foreclosure status).
• Real estate is local. And the Phoenix metro area is a BIG place. Any time statistics or price indexes are quoted for the entire Phoenix area, you have to understand that conditions across the Valley can vary dramatically. Even within a suburb, conditions can vary from subdivision to subdivision. Within a single large Master Planned Community, conditions can vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

The supply of homes is a perfect example. The general consensus in the real estate industry is that a six month supply of homes is considered a “balanced market”. Less than a six month supply means we are in a seller’s market and more than a six month supply is an indicator that we are in a buyer’s market.

At this moment in time, if you look at all the available inventory of homes across the Phoenix metro area, there is a 5.2 month supply of homes.

Months Supply of Homes: All areas and types:

If you’re a seller, you may be thinking, “Halleluiah! Phoenix is a seller’s market!” and if you’re a buyer you may be thinking, “Crap. I should have bought a home a couple of months ago when it was a buyer’s market and I would have had more negotiating power.”

Not so fast.

Let’s look at the categories of inventory that make up this number…

If you extract the data for just lender owned properties, you’ll see a much different picture.

Months Supply of Homes: Lender owned properties only:

Wow, there is only a 1.3 month supply of foreclosed homes. That indicates a very strong sellers market for foreclosed homes. A close examination of the data above shows you that foreclosure inventory is down, sales are up and pending sales (those homes under contract but not yet closed) are also up.

OK, so now you need to understand why these numbers are what they are. And sometimes the numbers alone won’t tell the whole story. Nothing in the chart above tells you that some large lenders and the Government Sponsored Entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac imposed moratoriums on foreclosures that are in the process of being lifted. Nothing in the numbers above tell you that there is still a lot of short sale/pre-foreclosure inventory – much of which slips into the lender owned category when it doesn’t sell on the open market.

Months Supply of Homes: Pre-foreclosure / Short Sales only:

Almost 12,000 homes listed in a short sale position.^[1] And it would take 15.2 months to sell all the existing short sale properties – if there were no more properties placed on the market.

The simple fact is, no home lasts for 15 months in a short sale position. The lender will foreclose long before that time period expires.

And what if you are a “normal” seller? Just the guy who owns their home and wants/needs to sell it. You aren’t in trouble with the payments, and you’ve got enough equity to sell at current values and repay your loan (and hopefully pocket a little cash at close).

Months Supply of Homes: Not lender owned or pre-foreclosure:

You my normal seller are still looking at a strong buyer’s market. Yes, sales and pending sales are trending up, but they are nowhere close to what they were last year and the year before. On average, you can expect it to take almost a year to sell your home. And guess what? You also get to compete with that foreclosed home across the street. The seller there is a bank that has probably already taken it in the shorts, they have no emotional investment in the home, and they’ve priced it very aggressively to get it off their books.

The Bottom Line

Not all statistics are as they appear, nor does any one stat tell the entire story. Consolidating all types of listings across an area the size of Phoenix metro into one number is usually very misleading.  Look closely at all real estate stats, keeping in mind that the variations across market segments and location can swing wildly (and change quickly). You should try to understand what the real estate market is like in your location, for your type of home in your situation. Just keep in mind that it is very easy to generalize and misinterpret real estate market stats, particularly the data that aggregate large areas of completely different property types.

— 
Tables from CromfordReport.com using data from public records and  data licensed from the Arizona Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS). Cromford Associates LLC, ARMLS and yours truly, Jay Thompson, expressly disclaim and make no representations or warranties of any kind – express, implied or statutory – as to the accuracy of the data, nor its merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.

In other less legal-like words, if you use this data to make personal, business or investment decisions and something blows up, it’s not our fault and you can’t sue us.

1. Short sale: a sale in which the owner can not sell the property for what they owe. Banks always have to approve short sales. After all, they are the ones who are not getting the amount they loaned.

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Related Articles at The Phoenix Real Estate Guy:

Phoenix & East Valley Real Estate Stats: June 2007

Phoenix Real Estate Listings and Sales Stats Updated

Phoenix Real Estate: Economic and Market Watch Report Q3 2007

I won’t wax poetic about prices in this post. Suffice it to say that home prices do follow the basic economic law of supply and demand. Too many homes for sale, and prices decline. Not enough homes for sale, and prices increase (basically).

No one wants to buy a home and have it decline in value. But despite some proclamations and the common belief of apparently many people, home prices do not always increase.

Yeah, the Phoenix real estate market has been in the toilet for quite some time now. One thing often left out of conversations, particularly in the mainstream media, is that Phoenix is coming off a run up of historic proportions. It was insane here back in 2005/2006. Appreciation rates were averaging 50% per year – a wholly unsustainable rate as I discussed here way back in November 2005.

So, if supply and demand is a leading factor in home prices, what’s happening right now in the Phoenix real estate market?

Here is a chart showing pending sales^[1] over the last 120 days in select Phoenix East Valley cities. Note the sharp increase in pending home sales across the board – which holds true in virtually every Phoenix area location.

Here is a chart showing homes sold in the same cities for the last 120 days:

And here is a chart showing the supply of listed homes (in months):

Inventory is declining. Most (but certainly not all) pending sales eventually close, so the skyrocketing pendings mean inventory should continue to drop. This bodes well for stabilizing pricing.

One of the problems with things like the Case-Shiller index, and even with charts like I’ve posted above is they tend to lump a ton of data together. Real estate is local, often down to the neighborhood, and different “sub-markets” in an area the size of the Phoenix metro area can behave very differently.

For a perfect example, let’s take a look at the current listing inventory broken down by price range:

So what is this chart telling us?

Look at the bar for homes in the $1.5 - $2M range. See how it’s poking way off to the right? That’s telling you that there is a 77 month supply of homes in that price range that are currently on the market. In other words, if no new homes in that price range are listed, at the current rate of sales it would take 77 months to sell all the existing listings. That’s 6.4 years for those that don’t want to do the math.

Conversely, look at the homes in the sub-$200K range. There is less than a six month supply of those homes on the market (the green line represents the six month supply line).

Generally speaking, a six month supply of homes is considered a “neutral market”, less than six months is a sellers market and more than six months is a buyers market.

So within the Greater Phoenix metro area, when it comes to price point, we’ve got market segments that favor buyers, or sellers, or are neutral.

Price point is but one factor. There are many others– age, style, location, ownership (bank owned, vs short sales vs individual owned) to name some. And these factors can all interact, making it complicated as all get out to figure out what’s happening in the market.

REO’s (Real Estate Owned – aka foreclosures aka Bank or Lender owned homes) are a hot topic. As Phoenix real estate has gone through the wringer, the REO market has changed significantly.  Stop back by in the next day or two for a look at how that market segment is behaving. I’ll drop one little teaser – there is currently only a 1.4 month supply of bank owned homes on the market.

—
Charts from CromfordReport.com using data from public records and  data licensed from the Arizona Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS). Cromford Associates LLC, ARMLS and yours truly, Jay Thompson, expressly disclaim and make no representations or warranties of any kind – express, implied or statutory – as to the accuracy of the data, nor its merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.

In other less legal-like words, if you use this data to make personal, business or investment decisions and something blows up, it’s not our fault and you can’t sue us.

1. Pending home sale = a home that is under contract, but has not yet closed. In other words, it’s in the process of transferring ownership

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Related Articles at The Phoenix Real Estate Guy:

Phoenix Listings and Sales Stats

Phoenix Listings and Sales Stats

Phoenix Area MLS Listings & Sales Stats

The Child Crisis Center of Arizona is holding a fundraising effort. The grand prize in a raffle is a stunning custom home in Las Sendas (pictured above)valued at $1.5 million (or a cool million in cash, your choice).

We’ve offered up a little side bar space over there to your right to help sell tickets. Just click the “ad” there (under “Raffle for Phoenix Child Crisis Center!”) and you’ll be whisked off to the site where you can buy tickets and get more info.

No, it isn’t cheap ($150/ticket, 3-pack for $400 or a 10-pack for $1,250) but what a great cause. And with only 20,000 tickets being sold you’re odds of winning one of 100+ prizes are 1 in 200. You might win a house, you will make a difference in a child’s life.

The home is magnificent. Las Sendas is a gorgeous Master Planned Community in northeast Mesa with a world-class Robert Trent Jones golf course, mountain views and amenities galore. Homes range in list price from the $170K to $5M, so there is something there for nearly everyone. Look for a “drive by video” soon!

Full disclosure: The marketing company that asked me to advertise the drawing is offering me a $10 payment for every ticket sold by clicking through from here. I will donate all of that back directly to the Child Crisis Center.

If you want to search all the currently listed homes in Las Sendas, use the embedded search below. Or grab the Las Sendas RSS feed!

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Your Child Can Die

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“John”, a self-identified home buyer in Gilbert, AZ asks:

Should I get an appraisal ? Cash buyer.

I am buying a home in Gilbert Az.. 85296, it is a short sale. Sale price is approx, $265,000. I am getting an inspection on the property but was wondering if its worth the expense to get an appraisal. Price seems in line with other similar homes I have seen in the area based on square footage and condition. What % of time do the appraisals come back less than the sale price ??

Several agents responded to the question, and the general consensus was that yes, the buyer should get an appraisal.

While open forums like Trulia Voices have been known to drive me crazy, they do provide a great way to see what kind of questions/concerns real estate buyers and sellers have. And reading some responses from “professionals” will either make you laugh, contemplate jabbing a fork in your eye, and occasionally make you say, “That dude knows his stuff”.

Enough on Voices and similar platforms. Here are my thoughts on whether a cash buyer should get an appraisal. Of note: the contractual and other statements here only apply to those utilizing the standard Arizona Association of Realtors Residential Resale Purchase Contract. Mileage will vary for those in other states, or those foolishly using a contract form purchased from Office Max or printed from “FreeRealEstateForms.com”.

Lenders require an appraisal. They want assurances that the property they are lending on is valued at or below the loan amount. A cash buyer on the other hand, isn’t dealing with a lender and therefore is not required to have the property appraised. (Though I’d think a cash buyer would want the same assurances on value…)

Required or not, personally I think an appraisal is a good idea. If for no other reason than it may provide some peace of mind that you are getting what you’re paying for. Getting a professional “third party” opinion on the value of something as significant as a piece of property just makes sense.

This begs the question though, of what – if anything – does it mean if the appraisal comes in lower that what you’ve agreed to pay?

What can you do if the appraisal comes in low?

It depends. In the standard Arizona Association of Realtors Residential Resale Purchase Contract, there is boilerplate language that protects a buyer with an appraisal contingency if the buyer is financing the property.

2c. 59 – 61. Appraisal Contingency: Buyer’s obligation to complete this sale is contingent upon an appraisal of the Premises by an appraiser acceptable to lender for at least the sales price. If the Premises fails to appraise for the sales price, Buyer has five (5) days after notice of the appraised values to cancel this Contract and receive a refund of the Earnest Money or the appraisal contingency shall be waived.

However, there is a short little statement in line 49 of the contract that effectively removes this contingency for cash buyers:

49. IF THIS IS AN ALL CASH SALE, GO TO SECTION 3.

A cash sale results (in effect) in the entirety of Section 2 (Financing) to be removed from the contract. Section 2 is where the appraisal contingency lies. So if you pay cash, you don’t have the “out” that the appraisal contingency provides.

Personally, I think this is a flaw in our current contract language. But the simple fact is, no contract can contain enough boilerplate language to cover every possible scenario and protect everyone from an incompetent preparation of the contract.

The solution is (relatively) simple. The Arizona contract provides an area where “additional terms and conditions” can be written in to the contract. Have your agent add language that will provide an appraisal contingency for a cash purchase.

I suspect right about now, some real estate agent and/or broker is saying, “Whoa buddy, only attorneys can add language to a contract or purchase agreement!” And  that is true in many states. But out here in the wild west, Article 26 of the Arizona State Constitution grants licensed real estate brokers and salespersons “the right to draft or fill out and complete, without charge, any and all instruments incident thereto”. In English, licensed Arizona brokers/agents can complete real estate contracts. This may, or may not, be the case in other states.

I think Steve Belt summed up the question of whether or not a cash buyer should get an appraisal when he said, “You are spending $265,000, spending another $350 for the appraisal seems like common sense to me.”

Indeed.

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Related Articles at The Phoenix Real Estate Guy:

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Do You *Really* Want to Sell Your Phoenix Home?

“We put in a full price offer and didn’t get the house!”

or

“The seller’s accepted an offer from someone who offered less than we did!”

Most peoples gut instinct leads them to believe that what matters in making an offer on a home is the price. Part of this may stem from real estate agents incessant harping that “price is everything”. And while aggressive pricing is the key factor in getting a home sold (at least in the Phoenix real estate market, and many other US markets as well), there are other factors besides price that a seller should evaluate on any offer their home receives. And if the seller is evaluating other factors, the savvy buyer will consider those factors when making an offer on a home…

Factors other than purchase price that influence a seller’s acceptance:

• Earnest Money
• Down Payment
• Method of financing
• Requested closing date
• Buyer’s contingencies 
• Buyer’s motives
• Seller’s motivation
• Local market conditions
• Negotiability

Let’s take a brief look at each of these items:

Earnest Money: Earnest money is, “A deposit paid by a buyer to a seller to demonstrate intention to complete the purchase.”  Generally speaking, the higher the amount, the more faith a seller will have that the buyer is serious about completing the transaction. A large earnest money deposit also signals the seller that the buyer is at least somewhat financially secure and in a good position to close the transaction. See Earnest Money — What, why, how much? for more details.

Down Payment: In these days of the “credit crisis”, sellers want to feel assured that potential buyers can get a mortgage. Remember, once the seller accepts your offer, their home is effectively taken off the market. At that point they need the buyer to close the deal. In the Phoenix real estate market, many transactions fall apart because the buyer ultimately doesn’t qualify for a mortgage. The seller gets nothing if this happens. A large down payment is a strong signal that you can obtain a mortgage.

Method of Financing: In the Arizona Residential Resale Purchase Contract, the type of financing the buyers will secure is disclosed in section 2g. While FHA and VA financing have advantages for home buyers, there are costs associated on these loan types for the sellers.

Requested Closing Date: Some sellers want a quick closing date. Generally speaking, if the home is not occupied and not leased by the seller, they’re going to want as speedy a closing date as possible. If the seller is currently residing in the home, a quick close may or may not be desired. I’ve seen offers fall apart because the buyer pushed too strongly in one direction or another for a specific closing date.

Buyer’s Contingencies: An offer contingent on the buyer selling their current home may just be the kiss of death in the current market. Yes, most sellers are happy to get any offer. But saddle your offer with the contingency that you have to sell your own home before you can purchase the new one and you’ll likely have an offer rejection in the very near future.

Buyer’s Motives: Is the buyer an investor intending to turn the property into a rental, or will they be occupying the home? Generally speaking, investors are far less emotionally attached to a particular home. They look at numbers, not how their sofa will fit in the living room.  Some seller’s prefer dealing with investor buyers, some prefer dealing with owner occupants. The reasons why vary widely, don’t even try to figure them out. Just know that all things equal, some sellers may (or may not) select your offer over another simply because they prefer what you plan to do with the home.

Seller’s Motivation: Sometimes, a good buyer agent can glean hints as to the seller’s motivation (conversely, a good listing agent would never reveal this information and jeopardize their clients negotiating position). If you can determine why the seller has the home listed, you may be able to tailor your offer a little. For example, if an owner is transferring out of state, a quick close may make your offer more appealing, even against one that is offering a higher price.

Local Market Conditions: Are you in a sellers market or a buyers market? Are bank owned homes moving better than resales? Is there a new home builder nearby offering discounts? Are you looking in a neighborhood where the amenities offset some of the poor market conditions found elsewhere? Local (and I mean LOCAL) market conditions can play an important role in the psyche of both the buyer and seller. You as a buyer may assume that the “Phoenix real estate market sucks” when in fact you are placing an offer on a home in a local neighborhood that is actually in a seller’s market condition (they are out there, don’t believe everything the mainstream media tells you). Thinking in too broad a market area when you are analyzing market conditions may just get your offer sent to the shredder.

Negotiability: First, I’m not even sure “negotiability” is a word. But it should be. If you look at enough home purchase offers, you get to where you can determine relatively well if the buyer is willing to negotiate on any terms. Personally, I think all parties in a real estate transaction should be willing to negotiate. You probably wouldn’t believe the petty things that have resulted in deals falling apart. Some border on the ridiculous. If a buyer comes in with a hard line, no negotiations allowed offer, then Mr. and Mrs. Seller are quite likely to say “Buh bye” to your offer without even giving it any consideration. Be flexible on things that don’t matter to you, and stand firm where you have to. But don’t slam the door shut before it’s even had a chance to crack open.

So, what does make a strong offer?

Tough to say. Every home, and every seller, is different. The point here is that the offer price is not the only thing sellers take into consideration when they decide whether or not to accept an offer. Of course price is important, probably the single most important factor in an offer. But it’s not the only factor. When you are working with your buyer’s agent to draft an offer, keep in mind all of the items listed above.  Also keep in mind that sellers are human beings (yes, even lender owned properties – lenders are human too, sort of) and as such getting an offer accepted might just depend on what kind of mood the seller is in at the point in time your offer is presented.

Crafting a strong offer is part art, part science, and part voodoo. It’s easy to get stuck in “offer price is all that matters” mode. It’s not all that matters.

Photo Credit: Creative Commons photo by bredgur

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Related Articles at The Phoenix Real Estate Guy:

Ask the Broker: Is Cash Still King?

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Earnest Money — What, why, how much?

Thanks to the developers at Diverse Solutions, you can now search for Phoenix homes right here on the Phoenix Real Estate Guy blog by “walk score”.

What is a Walk Score?

From the Walk Score site:

Walk Score helps people find walkable places to live. Walk Score calculates the walkability of an address by locating nearby stores, restaurants, schools, parks, etc. Walk Score measures how easy it is to live a car-lite lifestyle—not how pretty the area is for walking.

Like any algorithm, it’s not perfect. It doesn’t, for example, take into consideration location to public transportation. So let’s say you purchase a home near a Light Rail stop. While this could greatly decrease your need to use a car to get around, the walk score won’t be impacted.

It also doesn’t consider that it can be upwards of 900 degrees here in the summer, which makes walking from your front door to the driveway almost unbearable.

But still, it’s a pretty cool way to get a quick idea of what sort of amenities are within walking (or biking) distance of a home you are considering.

So how do I use it?

It’s mind-numbingly simple. Just go to the Phoenix Home Search page. At the bottom of the search choices, you’ll see the option for Walk Score. (just like in the graphic at the top of this post). Click it and set a score to search by.  You can also of course select any other search criteria you like – city, price, size, beds, baths, etc.

When you display your search results, you’ll see a little icon/link at the top right. Click that and you get all sorts of cool info about nearby stuff. Like this:

You can drill down into more goodness by clicking the little brown arrows next to each item in the Walk Score summary.

Phoenix isn’t as walkable a city as say San Francisco or New York City, but there are some areas with very high walk scores (typically in the downtown Phoenix area. Parts of Tempe and Mesa are also very walkable).

So give it a whirl. If nothing else, it’s additional data at your fingertips. And additional data in a home search is a good thing.

What others are saying:
Geek Estate Blog
Real Central VA
Diverse Solutions

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Power Ranch has long been one of my favorite East Valley communities, so it only seemed natural to dedicate a blog site to all things Power Ranch real estate.

Enter Power Ranch Homes.

There is still much work to be done, but the dedicated Power Ranch home search page, the listings RSS feed and some photos are up. There’s even a little “Streets of Phoenix” style video. 

Take it for a spin and let me know what you think. Suggestions and constructive criticism are always welcome.

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It’s quite likely (almost a certainty) that you’ll see the assessed value of your home has declined since your last notice.

That’s because, of course, generally speaking, home prices in Maricopa County have declined – sometimes significantly.

Of note, and this is important folks, these notices are NOT tax bills, and your 2009 property taxes will not be lower because of this lower assessment.

“Well that sounds like a load of crap Jay! My home value declines and my property taxes don’t?!?” you may be thinking. 

That’s because the assessment you are about to receive is for your 2010 taxes. You got your assessment for your current property taxes some 18 or so months ago.

Yes, the wheels of government turn slowly, and that includes the county tax assessors office. They lag about 18 months because there is time built in to appeal the assessment and because let’s face it, there are a lot of homes in Maricopa County. Gathering, assimilating, compiling and evaluating that much data takes time.

Before you get too bent out of shape remember this. A couple of years ago when Phoenix home values were exploding, you were paying taxes based on a lower value assessment from the previous 18 months. It works both ways…

Another thing to note. We get calls ALL the time after these notices come out from people who don’t think the assessed value equates to market value. They don’t. These aren’t appraisals. They aren’t usually even “drive bys”. Odds are no one in the assessors office has ever seen your home. Despite being called the “Full Cash Value” (FCV) this number does not reflect the true market value of your home. The valuations are determined based on sales data and statistics. Even so, they are fairly close to actual market value in some cases, but should never be used to determine the true market value of your home.

Here’s a chart courtesy of the Maricopa County Tax Assessor comparing median Full Cash Values between 2009 and 2010 assessments for various Phoenix area cities. The FCV numbers won’t match up with sales values, but the trends will be pretty darn close.Read it and weep.

Edited 2/24 changing references to “Fair Cash Value” to “Full Cash Value” because I’m an idiot and apparently had “fair” on the brain. Thanks Zoot!

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