It happens every summer (here's the 2005 post)…  some "parent" FORGETS THEIR KID IS IN THE CAR and leaves them there to roast.

On Thursday, it was 108 degrees when Kyle Brown forgot his THREE MONTH OLD daughter and left her in his SUV for ALMOST TWO HOURS.

Do you know how hot it gets in a car when it's 108 outside? Imagine being strapped in a car seat, parked in the sun, windows rolled up, for almost two hours. Hell, I dare anyone in this city to sit in an enclosed car for 15 minutes, much less an hour and 45 minutes. Go ahead, give it a try tomorrow. Park your car in the sun, and at 3:00 in the afternoon, climb on in. Be sure to roll up the windows. Oh, and no water — the baby didn't have any. See how long you can stand it. 

Little Amberlee Elizabeth Brown didn't have a chance. Her core temperature was 109 when firefighters arrived on the scene. She fought all night, but died Friday morning.

And here come the usual "prevention ideas" from the media — women, put your PURSE in the backseat with the kid. I guess you can't forget your purse, so when you reach for it, hopefully you are reminded to get your baby too. Put a note on the dashboard — I guess to remind yourself that you are a parent? Clip the garage door opener to the baby seat…

Dear God, do people really need a REMINDER to get their child out of the car???

This is going to sound harsh to some and I'm sure I'll get emails about it. But this is murder. Call it "negligent homicide" if it makes you feel better. Whatever. I know, I know, the parents are grieving, it's a tragedy, nothing can ever replace Amberlee. That's all true. It is a horrific tragedy. But it was entirely preventable and someone needs to go to prison.

Forgetting you have a three month old baby and leaving them in a car in the Phoenix summer is inexcusable. Period. 

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From an actual email:

. . . Do you have any information on which schools and which school districts are the best in Chandler or Gilbert or any other nearby areas? . . .

On the surface, this sounds like an easy question to answer. But if you kick back and ponder it a moment, it's really not a simple answer.

First, a licensed real estate agent has to be extremely careful to avoid steering, which can be defined as:

The illegal practice of directing home seekers to particular areas either to maintain the homogeneity of an area or to change the character of an area, which limits where they can live.

Providing an opinion on what schools are good and bad could be construed as steering. Some may say that is not so. Personally, I am not willing to risk my license to find out.

EDITED TO ADD: Don't think saying a school is "good" or "bad" could be construed as steering? Read this article, which contains info on a brokerage being sued for Fair Housing violations — mainly due to agents offering opinion on “good” vs “bad” schools….

Another issue with answering any "what is best" type of question is this — everyone has a different definition of "best". In regard to schools, best may mean best test scores, lowest student/teacher ratios, small class sizes, extracurricular activities offered, lowest drop out rates, etc. My idea of best may not line up with your idea.

So how do we answer such a question? I provide clients and prospects (and pretty much anyone that asks) with resources so they can collect information and make a decision. Now I have heard some agents and brokers say that we can not give out resources for information to clients. The technical term for that belief is "Bullhockey". We are (or should be) a clients number one resource in everything regarding their real estate transaction. That is what we do.

You want school information to help you determine the best school for you? Here are some suggestions:

• If at all possible, make an appointment to visit the school. If you can visit when school is in session, all the better. See with your own eyes what is going on. Talk to the principal. I haven't met one yet that will refuse to speak to the caregiver of a prospective student.
• Maybe you are out of state and can't physically visit. The Internet is a wealth of information. Just keep in mind that statistics never tell the full story. Look for your state's Department of Education site. Look for individual school district sites. Many schools themselves have their own websites.
• GreatSchools.net is an interesting resource. It includes parent (and even a few student) reviews of many, but not all, schools. I personally wouldn't exclude a school based on a bad parent review – I suspect Harvard and MIT get occasional bad reviews. But consistent poor reviews are certainly a warning flag.

School boundary questions also frequently come up. We have East Valley school boundary maps available at ThompsonsRealty.com. However, maps can be inaccurate and boundaries change - particularly in rapidly growing communities like we have in the East Valley. Never put blind faith in a boundary map. If a specific school is a concern, always always ALWAYS get confirmation from the school district about what schools serve a specific address.

There you have it. Research is the key. There are a lot of on-line resources available, but nothing beats an in-person visit to the school(s).

Arizona and Phoenix East Valley school resources:
Arizona Department of Education
Gilbert School District
Chandler School District
Kyrene (Tempe) School District
Mesa School District
Our School Boundary Maps
 
Others Opine: Real Estate Attorney Weighs In On Steering And Schools Controversy

Technorati Tags: Good schools, real estate steering

Now there's a pretty frightening title…

The PMI Mortgage Insurance Company recently released its Summer 2007 "US Market Risk Index Model" results, and it places Phoenix solidly in the #2 spot for metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) most likely to see a decline in housing prices over the next two years. A 64.6% chance to be precise.

There is no mention of how much of a price decline may occur, but other than the most rabid bubblehead, no one wants to see any price decline in home value.

This report has been in my "to be read and digested" pile for the last week. I got a call this evening from Marilyn Lewis, a reporter for MSN Money who is working on an article related to the report. She was quite nice and cordial, and we had a good talk about things a seller can do in this market. Having spoken with her, I elevated the PMI Group report to the top of the pile. While not yet fully digested, I've read it and pondered it enough to proclaim it "interesting".

Being a self proclaimed "chartaholic", and a former semiconductor manufacturing engineering type, I always find statistical analysis and models interesting. It's a sickness with no known cure.

The "MRIM" combines several factors to come up with a weighted analysis of what MSAs are most like to suffer price declines over the next two years. Specific factors are:

The PMI U.S. Market Risk Index is based on the OFHEO House Price Index , labor market statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the PMI Affordability Index, which uses local per capita household income, home price appreciation, and a blended mortgage rate to calculate the local share of mortgage payment to income relative to its baseline year of 1995. (source)

That Phoenix has and could continue to see falling home prices is not an earth shattering revelation. As I said in "GASP! Median Values are Down!" (Oct 2006) and even as far back as November 2005, there is/was no way our 54% appreciation rates of 2005/2006 were sustainable. The question of course becomes, will prices continue to drop, and how much?

The PMI Group says there is a 64% chance prices will drop in the Phoenix real estate market over the next two years. Whether that means a drop of $1 or a drop of 50%, who knows.

Someone may be thinking right now, "Well, then there is also a 36% chance prices will rise!"  That's not really a valid assumption as prices can do one of three things — rise, fall, or stay flat. We don't know what part of that 36% covers the probability of rising prices and what covers the probability of flat prices — the "MRIM" simply doesn't encompass this side of price movement.

And of course, the Market Risk Index Model could be wrong. It's been around since 2000 — "pre boom" years. I'm trying to find their previous years analysis as I think it would be quite interesting to see how accurate the model has been in the past.

What does this mean for real estate consumers? Much depends on what your needs are. If you have to sell (say due to a job transfer, financial reasons, etc.) then you have to. You can't really worry about what the future may bring. Find an agent that knows how to market a home in the current conditions, get your home spotless and make necessary repairs and price it properly. It will sell. Despite the doom and gloom of the mainstream media and bubble bloggers, homes still sell, every single day.

If you don't have to sell, now may not be the best time to list your home. Yes, I just said that in "print". It may not be the best time to sell. 

Is it a good time to buy? Maybe. Again as I wrote in "What the Heck is a Buyer's Market?" it depends on your situation . Interest rates are near historical lows, and there are (in the Phoenix market) 54,000 homes to chose from. That bodes well for buyers. If you plan to remain in your home for several years, you've got decades of history that supports overwhelming odds your home will appreciate over time. But if your intent is to buy and flip the home for a profit, in the current market I'd have to label you as insane. And that assessment holds true whether or not the "MRIM" is accurate in predicting the future. Now is not the time to flip.

The MRIM is an interesting model. There are sound assumptions behind it. No model can predict the future however. It is a data source and one of many factors you should consider if you are contemplating buying or selling real estate in the current market. 

Others Opine: Realty Times, Housing Doom, I Team, Housing Bubble Blog, Ellis Team

Technorati Tags: PMI Group, US Market Risk Index Model, Phoenix real estate

The Gilbert Town Council voted on June 19 to leave secondary property tax rates unchanged. The current rate of $1.15 per $100 of secondary assessed value has been in place since 2002, and will remain unchanged through at least fiscal year 2007 - 2008.

The astronomical home value appreciation Gilbert saw in 2005 and 2006 has resulted in significant increases in assessed value. My home's assessed value increased 64.71% in that time. With tax rates remaining unchanged and valuation increased, simple math tells you that my actual property taxes have increased.

The Town Council vote was 4 - 3. The three members that voted against (Mayor Steve Berman and council members Dave Crozier and Don Skousen) the rate were hoping to lower the rate to $1.05 - $1.10. Vice Mayor Steve Urie and council members Linda Abbott, Joan Krueger and Les Presmyk voted in favor of keeping the rate at $1.15.

Angela De Welles at NewsZap.com noted Ms. Krueger, "said she personally will pay an increase of about $13.50 a year" at the current rate. Apparently Ms. Kreuger's home somehow escaped the appreciation boom seen by 99.99% of other homes in Gilbert. My own Gilbert taxes will increase approximately $132 a year. Perhaps Ms. Kreuger meant to say $13.50 per month, not per year. Perhaps she was misquoted. Or perhaps she is mathematically challenged. I can't believe her increase is only $13.50 per year. It simply does not compute.

I'm all for lower taxes, but Gilbert is in dire need of improved infrastructure. The roads are a mess in many parts of town, unable to keep up with exploding growth. Ask anyone that lives say south of Warner Road how their daily commute has changed in the last two years and you'll hear horror stories of single lane roads originally designed to handle farm traffic measured in the hundreds, not residential traffic in the thousands.

As long as the Town Council keeps their promise to use the additional $10.3 million in taxes the increased assessments will bring to improve infrastructure, then I don't have a problem paying more. However if they earmark this money for things like painting the water tower, and putting in more mosaic pavers and fancy street lights a la what was done at the Gilbert and Elliot road intersection, then rest assured there will be some upset citizens of our fair town.

We'll be watching…

Others Opine: AZRepublic

Technorati Tags: Gilbert Arizona, Gilbert Town Council, property taxes

All across the country, cities and towns will be having picnics, concerts and of course fireworks displays to celebrate Independence Day this July 4th.

Here is a list of towns in the Phoenix East Valley, with as much info as I could find…

Gilbert:

Gilbert’s Old Fashioned Fourth of July Celebration starts at 5 p.m. at the Gilbert Youth Soccer Association’s soccer fields located at Germann and Greensfield roads.

Fireworks for this event start at 9 p.m. The event is free.

There will be live music, and other performers, as well as the traditional pie and watermelon eating contests. New this year is a singing contest, with the winner getting to sing the national anthem at the next Gilbert Rodeo.

The event is presented and sponsored by the Town of Gilbert. 

Chandler:

Chandler's Family Fourth of July 7UP Fireworks Spectacular starts at 4 p.m. at Tumbleweed Park, located on the southwest corner of McQueen and Germann roads.

The fireworks for the Chandler event begin at 9:30 p.m. The event is free but on-site parking is $5 per vehicle.

There will be live music, a bike parade, free kids carnival, a classic car show, food and drinks.

The Chandler 4th of July 7UP Fireworks Spectacular is presented by the City of Chandler and the Chandler Lions Club.

This is typically one of the larger celebrations in the East Valley, with 30 - 40,000 expected to attend.

East Mesa:

Mesa's 46th annual 4th of July Fireworks Show begins at 6 p.m. at the Mesa Community College Riggs Stadium, Dobson Road and Southern Avenue.

The fireworks will start at 9 p.m. Admission to the stadium is $1.00 per person but children under 6 are admitted free. Parking is $5.00 per vehicle.

A food court and drinks will be in the stadium area. Entertainment, such as kids rides and singing, begin at 7 p.m.

This event is sponsored by the Sertoma Club of Mesa.

Apache Junction:

Apache Junction will be celebrates all day long at Apache Junction High School, 1091 W. Southern Avenue.

Events begin at 10:00am with a youth basketball game featuring a three point competition and a game of horse. There will also be a citywide swim meet at noon. There will be booths and vendors throughout the area which leads to free watermelon for everyone between 6-9 p.m. Fireworks will start at 9 p.m.

Hosted by the City of Apache Junction Parks and Recreation Department.

We attended the AJ event a few years ago. Excellent fireworks and crowds smaller than you'll find in the other East Valley cities.

Queen Creek:

Queen Creek celebrates their annual Fourth of July celebration at 5 p.m. at Schnepf Farms, 22601 E Cloud Road.

The fireworks display starts at 9:15 p.m. The event will be free, parking is $10 per vehicle.

There will be a handful of bands playing before hand as well as other events and vendors for the public. One band, the Sunshine Generation, will provide a concert specifically for the younger attendees.

The event will offer pony and camel rides in addition to other rides for children.

This event is sponsored by The Kiwanis Club of Queen Creek.

UPDATE!

Tempe:

Reader Laura was kind enough to point out what may be the single most glaring ommission in the history of the Phoenix Real Estate Guy.  Somehow I managed to leave out The July 4th Tempe Town Lake Festival — probably the biggest party of the year in the Valley.

Advanced admission is $6 (under 12 free. $8 at the gate or 2 for $15). Parking is $10, but trust me, take a free Park-n-Ride.

4:00 - 11:00pm at the Tempe Town Lake Beach Park. Too much happening here to list, check their web site…

Produced by the Kiwanis of Tempe, sponsored by CBS 5 and US Airways.

==========

Here is an article from the East Valley Tribune with more fireworks locations across the Valley.

At most (if not all) of these events, no ice chests, large coolers or alcoholic beverages are allowed for security reasons. All most likely will allow water to be brought in — a good idea given it's likely to be about 400 degrees outside in the late afternoon/evening.

All of these events should be great family entertainment. Enjoy yourselves and be safe!

Technorati Tags: Phoenix fireworks, East Valley, July fourth celebrations