“Christine” just sent me an email with a question we hear a lot….
—–Original message—–
From: xxxxxxxx@gmail.com
Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2008 11:59:28 -0600
To: jay@thompsonsrealty.com
Subject: Is now a good time to buy a home in Phoenix
>
>
> hi Jay -
>
> Enjoy your blog and was wondering your toughts on whether or not
> this is a good time to buy a house in Phoenix?
>
> I’d appreciate your thoughts
>
> Christine
The short answer is: I don’t know. Or, “maybe, maybe not”.
Well, it is a buyer’s market isn’t it?
Yep. The generally accepted definition of “buyer’s market” is a market with more than six months of available inventory for sale.
Are we there? Uh, yeah. Let’s take a quick peek at the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS).
Current Single-Family Homes listed for sale = 46,908
Single-Family Homes sold in past 30 days = 2,687
46,908 / 2,687 = 17.46 months of available inventory for sale (AKA “Absorption Rate”).
So if we are in a strong buyer’s market, then obviously this is a good time to buy a home in Phoenix. Right?
I don’t know. Maybe, maybe not.
It depends on several things:
1) Your needs
2) Your financial situation
3) Your personal situation
4) Your employment situation
5) Your credit history
6) and more…
Are there some great deals out there for buyers? Sure. Are all 46,908 homes listed for sale great deals? Absolutely not. Trust me, there are many homes listed in the MLS that are unreasonably priced and/or the seller has little to no motivation to sell.
In fact, there are many homes listed that can’t be sold because the seller is “upside down” in their mortgage and they don’t have the cash to bring to close. So unless you have the cash to pay over appraised value (in a generally declining market) then homes in this situation will sit on the MLS until they rot.
There are many benefits to home ownership. Generally, over time, homes increase in value. If you plan to stay in a home for a few years, that is a good thing. There is a lot to be said for “pride of ownership” and a place to call your own. There are tax advantages to owning a home. It’s nice to be able to fix up your home how you want it, not how your landlord dictates. Interest rates are near historical lows.
But, buying a home right now is not the best move for everyone.
Talk to a professional. Get to understand the nuances of the current real estate market in Phoenix (or where ever you happen to live). Talk to a lender, a financial planner. Get educated. We can help, so can others.
Is now a good time to buy a home in Phoenix?
I don’t know. Maybe, maybe not.
Next up – Is now a good time to sell a home in Phoenix?
I’ll give you a hint — maybe, maybe not.
.
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Beautifully said - everyone’s situation is different and to say “now is a good time to buy” would be generalizing. I think the important factor is to work with a knowledgeable real estate professional you trust to give you the inside scoop on each property and each area as well as historic trends.
Great post! I agree that, in general, in today’s local market everything indicates that (if you’re in a good standing - personally and financially) this can be a good time to buy. On the other hand - same size doesn’t fit all - never did and never will.
We also keep hearing - “when the market will hit bottom? I want to buy at the lowest price possible.” Well, statistics, analytics and professionals can only suggest, but no one can know exactly when and what it will be. There are too many variables that affect current market. People are forgetting that purchase of a real estate is a “long term investment”, and in a long term real estate is always appreciating.
is there a program or an option in which a part of the original debt [second mortgage] could be forgiven thus allowing the homeowner to keep the property as he would be able to maintain paying the first mortgage
Put it this way: first mortgage is $ 2886.00, second mortgage is : $886.00
house original price was $ 554,000.00 in 2006 and now comps are sold for $ 417,000.00 this is a 80/20 interest only loan on a five year term. We are currently in our second year. Currently on time as far as when payments are due.
Could it be realistic to ask the lender to forgive the second mortgage?
if so, wht steps are to be follow?
Now the property is in california.
Pepe - It’s really impossible for me to say. Generally speaking, lenders aren’t real keen on just forgiving debt. If they did that, what would stop everyone from asking for their debt to be forgiven? If you are current on your payments, I suspect the lender would want some sort of proof that you are unable to continue to make the payments. It may sound harsh, but they don’t really care what your home is worth. They care about getting the payments they were promised. Unless something (other than a decrease in value) has changed in regard to your ability to pay, I’d be surprised if they would do much. Lenders aren’t going to just forgive loans because values have declined.
I don’t know California law, so I don’t know if seconds are “no recourse” loans (meaning the lender has no recourse if you default). In some states that is the case. In other states, they can come after other assets you have.
It’s entirely possible there could also be tax implications for you if the second mortgage debt was forgiven.
I think a logical first step would be to contact your lender. Followed closely by a tax professional should the lender offer some sort of resolution. There may be something the lender can do other than forgiving the debt (possibly restructuring the loan in some way so as to make it more affordable).
Wish I could help more, but there are just too many variables for me to know. Even if you were in Arizona, I would recommend consulting with your lender. It’s their money, and they are in the best position to advise you.
Nicely done. I always try to combat the stereotype that some promote of Realtors, that our position is “If you’re a Realtor, it’s always a good time to buy.” I always try to tell people that if they can make the payments easily and don’t plan on moving in the next several years, now may be a great time because prices are low and interest is low.
Or another way to put it: It’s always a a great time to buy a house for somebody, but maybe not for you.
It’s more to the point for us as professionals that we’re not here to talk people into something, but rather, to succeed, we need to find those people for whom buying / selling today makes sense and work with them. Like being a restaurant owner — the goal is not to make everyone hungry, the goal is to be ready to provide service to those who are.
“If you plan to stay in a home for a few years, that is a good thing. ”
I think your comment about staying in a home for a few years is key. We don’t know yet exactly how the next few years will play out. The housing market troubles have taught all of us a big lesson: real estate appreciates … except when it doesn’t. It does go up over time, but if you don’t have time … well, think before jumping in. People get transferred so often these days that for the past couple of decades people have felt safe transferring to a new city and buying a home that they knew they would be selling in 2-3 years. The housing troubles have resulted in people rethinking that logic. We used to hear the advice about stocks — don’t buy unless you plan to hold the stock for 5 years or more. It’s not bad advice for the housing market either. If you plan to stay in a home for more than a few years, I wouldn’t be afraid to buy. If you are on that 2-3 year line and your financial situation isn’t solid, I would think it over seriously if you think you might be forced to move.
I would use your services if I were planning to buy or sell in Phoenix. You’re honest, and that’s 90% of it for me. It’s not often that you see a truly honest post from a real estate professional.
You are right. People expect universal advices. But nothing like that exists! if there really is something like good investment, in the time when this information has already spread around the world (internet, country, town…) this chance is gone! The best thing is to ask yourself - Do I need that property? Do I want it? Am I willing to pay for it? There are many guides for buyers (like we have on Toronto condos website), but the final decision is always client’s decision…
Jay,
As I always expect of you… and what you always deliver… honesty. I get the same question in the Atlanta area, and I deliver a similar answer. Say that “it is always a good time to buy” and that it is “unbelievable” just don’t cut it. Consumers need REAL and honest advice.
Good job.
Lane
Here is a take on this subject:
http://www.foreclosureexpert.i.....id-to.html
I think that now is the best time to buy and if you qualify for a loan Arizonia would be a great place to consider.
I think where many americans traditionally retired to Florida we will see many boomers going to Arizonia due to the huge inventory of affordable homes and as that 17 months plays out things may get cheaper yet. Usually many families follow there parents as they move and retire so I think we will also see young families moving.
Yes right now is an awesome time to buy a home… 110% in Pinal County. Maricopa County will offer great pricing in about six months, but they are still great pricing unless you want to sock it to the man… Then you are gambling at that point. Why is it a great time? Pricing is at all time lows, interest rates are in the record low window… GOVT down payment assistance is out there, and FHA and VA financing is back in play. I still think we should hold off in Maricopa for six more months until we buy. My realtor {redacted} deals in finding some of the best bargains and work with 1st time home buyers and investors. If you want to list your house he referrs you out to somebody like {redacted}, because he wants the job done RIGHT… My Realtor’s team specializes in sniffing some or all of the best bargains in town… This is not a sale’s pitch for him at all. Go with whoever you want to use. I am just telling you they are awesome and educational. They tell you where it makes sense to buy and not.
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After talkign with several realtors I have a little issue I want to vent on. All of you fear talking about it sense you are realtors and could never talk about it. I am not suggesting talking about fixing prices, because that truly is bad. However, I have seen you all doing things out of fear, and not thinking your actions all of the way through. I want you to be competitive, but I do not want to work with poor realtors in in State, and I buy throughout the country. Now, please read this next section with an open mind. I am not suggesting price fixing. If you want to be a rebater then you need to know why you want to do it, and each logical step in doing it. Buyers dealing with rebaters you need to know you will not get full service and a rebate, or sellers you will not get full service and a discount. Why??? It cost a tone of money to do real estate. Yes, they make big checks, but out of my research they closeless than 3% of the people they deal with, so imagine all of the time, gas, money, etc wasted before they get a deal done.
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I have noticed some realtors not having balls against big brother bank… OK. Why are we in this mess??? Big brother did not stop 100% lending when appreciation exceeds local ten year averages. They should have made the buyers come in with down payments to keep the 100% balanced with the 10 year average. There is nothing wrong with ARMS, NegAms, etc. It is simply the issue big brother bank was checked out during the boom stimulated by late night shows… ((( NOTE: for the next 10 years I would not want an ARM to expire, because we could be seeing stagflation caused by the real estate boom and fall )))…
Big brother bank is doing one thing right now. You can call them up after missing 3 payments, and they will lower your interest rate for the term of your loan, so you will not walk…
Talking about walking… You should walk from Preforecloures right now. Let the bank have then back, so you can get instant responses from them once it is an REO.
Next, if they want to play with the buyer agents’ commission then you should tell them it is illegal per your local board, etc, and no you do not get paid off of the net price, but the gross price of the transaction.
Come on now and take back your industry… Are you a professional or just a slacker…
How much commission do you have to make to be profitable??? Yes, so you can even pay your taxes??? I see so many realtors giving away their money, because they think it is makes it easier to get a deal. What happens when each of your realtors do this? The only commission of whatever (call it 3%) because 1%. Yes, this means everybody is rebating… Now, what is your competitive advantage? Leave commissions private, and voice it out whenever you can that rebates should not be allowed. Stand up to your board, department, local, state, and national governments… Let those realtors know the trail of doom that goes with rebating, and how Joe will just do a bigger and bigger discount until everybody is out of business.
You do not normally have high profits, so how are you going away your money to the banks and buyers??? Honestly, how are you doing it????
I can talk this way, because I am just a consumer. I am not a realtor. Why do I talk this way? I relate income to service. I want my service. I stay in resorts when I travel, and when I have a realtor I do not want to just get 3 hours with him or her, because they have rebated there life away to buyers and banks. I also do not want to be working with a poor realtor either. Realtors are professionals and should be rich…
One program exists when both 1st and 2nd are owned by one bank. If you are 90 days late some banks are dropping your interest rate to 4% for the remainder of the term of your notes. Why??? They do not want another home on their books. Yes, they lose some opportunity money, but they do not take the short-term tank… Encourage your sellers to not sale and talk with their banks… This will help them and all of us. We do not need another foreclosure or short-sale on the market… People who do not need to sale right now… do not… just sit tight. Supply and demand control values. If we keep dumping more supply and holding demand constant it will take forever to get the boat moving. The smart play right now is to buy investment properties like I am doing through {redacted} Like you will always see me say… use whoever you want to use, but these guys and gals know their stuff… They will slow you up, so they can educate you. They hate dealing witht he un educated. I love them… They are fun, professional, and brilliant…
Hey realtors!!!! Stop being hookers… If you tell buyers you work the old fashin way face to face you will get more business. Yes, because all of those emails you are send them of listings for FREE are you getting back??? They are wasting your time and their time.. Be honest with them… Prequal first, commit to you, and then we will buy a house, so have your check book in your pocket… If your realtor does not ask these things from you then you might want to move on. Who wants to work with somebody who does not want to meet face to face with you??? Who does not want a commitment??? Who does not qualify you??? You all are not paid by the hour and you collect a high risk check at the end… I would never let somebody work for me who did not believe in themselves and was to afraid to ask for what they deserver… How could they ever negotiate for me???
Bobby Boy - I’m glad you love your agent. Really I am. But I removed your links to him. Nothing personal, but I’m a Phoenix area agent. It seems….well…. silly to give your agent free advertising on my blog.
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