It's probably no surprise to any of my fellow Gilbert, AZ residents that yet another study shows Gilbert is the fastest growing large (>100K population) suburb in the nation.
From a Forbes.com article on MSN today:
The fastest-growing big suburb (with a population of 100,000 or more) is Gilbert, Ariz., outside Phoenix, which grew from 112,766 people to 191,517. The Phoenix area saw the greatest positive domestic migration of any American metro area last year, with 115,000 more people moving into town than leaving. Affordable housing and a growing economy are draws for the city.
Those numbers are from 2000 to 2006 based on US Census data and represent an almost 70% increase in population. We moved here in 1999 and have witnessed this growth first hand. As previously mentioned here, there are some growing pains, particularly in the areas of road and traffic infrastructure. Our City Council has done an admirable job trying to keep up, but often it seems like it's two steps forward and one step back.
Three West Valley suburbs are in the Top 5 overall list: Buckeye (+192%), Surprise (+166%) and Goodyear (+143%).
Jonathan Dalton now has even fewer reasons to renew his East Valley visa…
Other Phoenix suburbs in the Top 100 list are Avondale at #9, and Chandler at #97. The Great State of Texas dominates the list with 20 of the Top 100.
Despite all the doom and gloom about the real estate market that's regularly proclaimed in the mainstream media and bubble blogs, all these people moving into the area are going to need a place to live. There is still a great deal of new home construction happening in the Gilbert real estate market. Yes, there is a glut of homes available for sale (current Gilbert listings = 2770). However, a growing economy, a well managed city, low unemployment and a constant influx of new residents all bode well for the future of the Gilbert real estate market, as well as the other rapidly growing Phoenix metro areas.
Interestingly, I find no mention of this latest growth study in any of the local papers. Hmmmm, perhaps they have a hard time printing something positive like, "Affordable housing and a growing economy are draws for the city"???
Here is the entire Top 100 list of America's fastest growing suburbs.
Technorati Tags: Gilbert real estate, Forbes Top 100 Fastest Grwoing Suburbs
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While no one loves AZ more than I do, I’m not sure “affordable housing” can be considered a draw for the city. According to recent sales data, the median home price in Gilbert was between $285,000 and $330,646 depending on which zipcode you live in , during the second quarter of the year. If Wikipedia is to be believed, “The median income for a household in Gilbert was $68,032, and the median income for a family was $70,994.” Most financial advisors recommend spending no more than 3.5 times annual salary to purchase a home in order to avoid financial hardship and/or potential foreclosure. This equates to a justifiable median home price of approximately $248,500, meaning that existing homes have anywhere from $36,500 to $82,200 to fall before housing prices in Gilbert become realistic, much less affordable.
AZNative - thanks for stopping by and commenting! You make excellent points (BTW, Wikipedia’s income numbers are very close to what I hear elsewhere). The crazy run-up over the last couple of years definitely pushed Gilbert (and much of Phoenix suburbia) into a different realm, but it is still much more affordable than many places (ie: CA, FL, NV, northeast, parts of the northwest. Coincidentally, this is were a lot of the influx into the state is coming from…).
And of course by definition, half of the homes out there are below the median value. (and yep, half are above). Ditto for income. To be “truly affordable” and hit that 3.5x number, I guess you’d have to have median income folks buying below median priced homes.
The current listings in Gilbert range in price from $126K to $3.5M. There is pretty much something for anyone. “Affordable”? That may be pushing it by the strictest definition of the word. But MANY folks we work with remark every day how “cheap” homes are here.
Often, affordibility is a matter of perspective.
Hi Jay, Thanks for the reply. I’ve read a few of your previous posts today and really enjoyed them (especially loved the desert pics). FWIW, I absolutely agree that “affordable” is a subjective term and that median wage earners always have the option of buying below median priced homes (whether or not they are willing to is another question entirely). As someone who follows the AZ real estate market (and anything else pertinent to the state) with great interest, I’ll just be happy when prices return to a sustainable level - when either wages (and rents) come up or prices come down. Call me old fashioned, but I consider home ownership vital to the health of the community - affecting everything from quality of schools to crime - and look forward to a return of the days when the question on potential buyers minds is overwhelmingly “Is this a good place to raise a family”, rather than “How much money can I make on my speculative flip”. I don’t think the crazy run up over the last couple of years was good for the community and I don’t think the crazy run back down will be either, but I do look forward to things eventually getting back to normal.
“Interestingly, I find no mention of this latest growth study in any of the local papers.”
That is truly weird!
The growth explains why metro Phoenix will be one of the first markets to bounce back.
Jay, I read few of your posts and they were really nice and informative. One thing is sure that each post is having something important for real estate business.
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