Half of Arizona Homeowners are Underwater. 23% Nationwide…

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Underwater borrowers

Not surprising, but sobering numbers…

The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of people underwater on their mortgages (those who owe more than the property is currently worth), has increased to 23% nationally.

Arizona is second only to Nevada with 47.9% of all home owners with a mortgage having negative equity in the third quarter of 2009. Another 4.5% are classified as “near negative” – within 5% of being in a negative equity position. (Nevada is at 65% / 3.7%)

Yep, drive through a neighborhood in Arizona and statistically speaking, every other house you drive by is worth less than what is owed on it. Drive through a development built in the last five years and the odds are outstanding that every homeowner is underwater.

Depressing, isn’t it?

Oklahoma, New York and Montana all have less than 7% of mortgage holders in a negative equity position. Florida, Michigan and California round out the top five in underwater borrowers.

I don’t really want to get off into why half of Arizona is underwater on their mortgage. There are lots of reasons – ridiculously lax lending practices in the near past, poor choices by lenders and borrowers, accepting crappy advice like, “Don’t worry, in a couple of years you can just refinance”, irrational exuberance, and investor frenzy all come immediately to mind. We could discuss all of these for a significant portion of the rest of eternity.

What’s it going to take to fix this?

I don’t know.

A homebuyer tax credit won’t do it.

There are lots of calls out there for loan modifications that include a principal reduction component. You think the banks are going to reduce principal balances on HALF the mortgages in Arizona? On a fourth of the mortgages across the country?

Time, and a lot of it, is the most likely answer. Quasi-regular readers know I’m not a fan of Big Brother Government mucking about in the market. The Law of Unintended Consequences is a scary thing. At this point, I don’t think the government could fix this even if they had a clue. Look at the numbers in this WSJ interactive chart — $12.8 trillion dollars of property value and $8.9 trillion in outstanding mortgage debt. That’s a 70% LTV (loan-to-value) ratio nationwide. Arizona’s LTV is 91%. Ninety-one percent.

These are mind-boggling numbers folks.

If the government must get involved, streamlining the short sale process might help. I can’t tell you how many buyers we’ve had that walk away from a short sale transaction because they grow weary of waiting, 5, 10, 20 weeks or more to get a reply from a lender. If the short sale process was even remotely reasonable we might actually be able to bleed off some of this inventory, impact the supply and demand curve and see home values begin to appreciate – hopefully at a reasonable pace, not the patently absurd frenzy of a few years ago.

Until that happens (IF that happens), more homes are likely headed into foreclosure, putting too many homes on the market, increasing supply which will result in downward pressure on prices.

It’s a vicious circle.

There is no question there are some great buying opportunities out there. Yesterday I showed homes in the $125K range that would have cost $200K a couple of years ago. That’s great for the buyers. Conversely it’s lousy for the sellers. But every buyer needs to understand that as low as prices are, that doesn’t mean we’ve hit bottom and there is never any guarantee that home values always increase. Obviously that is a fallacy. The WSJ report indicates 11% of borrowers who took out a mortgage this year already owe more than their home is worth. The days of buying a home and selling it in a few months (or few years) for profit are over.

At least in this neck of the woods.

What am I missing? What, if anything, can the government do to stabilize the housing market? Should they do anything or should they let market dynamics play out?

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About the Author
Jay Thompson

I'm a real estate broker in Phoenix, Arizona and the publisher of the Phoenix Real Estate Guy blog. I tend to drive too fast and scream at the University of Texas and Denver Broncos football teams. My two kids are smarter than most adults I know and my wife is simply amazing.

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Your right, it's a great time to buy if your not just trying to turn a big profit in a short time. In downtown austin, investors are still buying like crazy but then turning around and renting the property. They have found that if they hold on to these houses for a year or two they can still profit.

Wow, when you break it all down the numbers are staggering! 23% of all home owners owe more than their home is worth. My son bought a house in Round Rock TX, just north of Austin, over 5 years ago. That same house in the Austin area would most likely be worth less now.

I would guess that over half of AZ homeowners will be upside down within the next couple months. Once the job market improves we may start to see this turn around. On a positive note, this is a great time to buy a home if you are in it for the long term.

This market will just get worse...no matter how many new home buyer credits we issue. AZ, NV and FL have been hit particularly hard. We need to focus on keeping people in their homes.

The shot sale process really is a nightmare. I had a buyer walk after 2 months of no response. She had a very reasonable offer. What is with these banks? Are they overwhelmed or just lazy?

Ouch, I didn't realize AZ was doing so poorly.

Jay, I'm in Florida with 44+% upside down and it appears to be going up. I think this problem will continue to haunt us for some time. There are plenty of home owners upside down but who are still making plenty of income and as happy as can be. However, the day they get transferred 2 years from now or a life change happens 3 years from now, they will find themselves having to deal with the mortgage problem.

I do a good amount of Short Sale business but the banks need to get serious about Short Sales if they are the chosen path for upside down home owners who need out.

They need to update that map and include Southern Utah as a troubled Dark Red area. Our market followed Las Vegas not Salt Lake so we are just as screwed as NV and AZ but no one ever says anything about us. (We are a small community so Im not all that suprised.)

That's why percentage of foreclose property has been increased compare the previous year.

"The days of buying a home and selling it in a few months (or few years) for profit are over." I can only speak for the Indianapolis Metropolitian area. In terms of distressed sales, there is money to be had almost instantly. Case in point...new production condos that were built in the past 5 years are now going for 40 cents on the dollar and their market value is about 65 cents on the dollar with very little rehab (usually just cosmetics). Investor buyers are offering list or over just to secure the sale. They are either flipping or renting. I see lots of buyers that would normally buy a regular resale now looking at distressed housing for an investment."What, if anything, can the government do to stabilize the housing market? Should they do anything or should they let market dynamics play out?"My crystal ball is to cloudy to tell BUT when the tax credits expire and are not extended you and I may be twiddling our thumbs. My gut feeling says the the government should step back this summer and let market play its self out.

And a couple of good thoughts Chris! I was talking to a prospective client the other day. Relocating here for a 18 - 24 month assignment and was considering buying due to the "great deals" he'd heard about. He was stunned when I brought up renting. We ran through some numbers and that's exactly what made the most sense for his situation.

Great points Doug. Interest rates are at historical lows. Prices (at least around here) are back to realistic. It's not a bad time to buy for some folks, but it's never "A GREAT TIME TO BUY!" for everyone....

The shifting is one of my major concerns with the tax credit Ben (along with the fact my grandkids will end up paying for it). I don't think it motivates many people to buy a home that wouldn't otherwise. It may pull in buyers that would have bought anyway, so the net effect is little.(and buying a home just for the tax credit is a really bad reason to buy a home)

"I am of the opinion that the NAR has already pushed the government to do what it should not have done."You won't get any argument from me Gregory...

A valid point (about selling now) Benjamin. The problem is, it's not all that easy to do a short sale. Even when all the stars align, and it's the right thing for everyone (including the lender) I've seen way too many lenders drag their feet and wind up foreclosing on the home, only to place it on the market and get LESS for it than if they'd approved the short sale...

Brilliant comment Troy! I agree completely that there are MANY great reasons to own a home other than as an "investment". It seems a house is the only thing people expect to always gain in material value.

That's a very interesting fact. Now, those owners will have a great problem on their land.

Let the markets figure it out! Without Gov't intervention, supply and demand will work out the value details. Also, why does everybody think this is a bad market for sellers? Seriously name another time in history where (many) homeowners can get out from underneath a ton of debt with little to no consequence? I think homeowners should be jumping up and down! Do a short sale now, wait two to three years for your credit to get better, and buy again! I'm fairly certain that prices will still be incredibly affordable (if not more so).

Flipping houses is basically buying an undervalued home in need of repair or renovation and then selling it for a much higher price. Amid the recession, more owners are opting to sell their old houses and move to smaller ones instead of funding repairs. This presents a perfect opportunity for those who want to cash in on the trend. Whether you’re a seller or a buyer of a “fixer upper,” you will get something from the web site. Visit http://bit.ly/w26f2 for more details.

Flipping houses is basically buying an undervalued home in need of repair or renovation and then selling it for a much higher price. Amid the recession, more owners are opting to sell their old houses and move to smaller ones instead of funding repairs. This presents a perfect opportunity for those who want to cash in on the trend. Whether you’re a seller or a buyer of a “fixer upper,” you will get something from the web site.Visit http://bit.ly/w26f2 for more details.

Flipping houses is basically buying an undervalued home in need of repair or renovation and then selling it for a much higher price. Amid the recession, more owners are opting to sell their old houses and move to smaller ones instead of funding repairs. This presents a perfect opportunity for those who want to cash in on the trend. Whether you’re a seller or a buyer of a “fixer upper,” you will get something from the web site. Visit http://bit.ly/w26f2 for more details.Thanks, Im maggies than to buy a newspaper and read the classified ads. The information produced by the Search Engines such as google and yahoo are enough to satisfy the buyers needs,. Some popular online classified ads are Craigslist.org, backpage, trulia, and kijiji.

Couple of thoughts..1.) Appreciation isn't the only way to build equity. Simply stay put, without ATM'ing your home, and in 30 years you'll have a roof over your head without a monthly payment attached. People need to get back to longer-term thinking. Which brings up #2:2.) Doug has the right idea. We've heard too many people talk about buying a home with plans to live in it for 3-5 years, and then "getting out" with some profit. If you're not thinking about 5-10 years as your time frame, the transaction costs of buying, selling, and then buying your next place are going to eat up any potential profit. And that's assuming there is any profit to start with! Renting makes very good sense for short term living solutions, especially these days.

I met with buyer clients last night at their hotel to write up an offer on a home. He was running late, but he asked his wife to show me the WSJ with that headline on Page 1. Ouch! Looking over the WSJ map and the fact the article covered 25% of the page made me feel sick too.I suggested to them that they need to look at this with a 5 year minimum time frame. That interest rates are at 5% or lower. And that that home was priced low for the neighborhood... yes, we wrote up the offer.All in all, it is important for agents to keep in mind that they can't want the deal more than their clients do. They need to move thanks to a job transfer and it was the best one available.

Anything the goverment does is going to have one of two effects. First, it will shift the losses to a second party. It seems to me that the mortgage company and homeowner entered into a contract. They benefited when the market went up, I see no reason why they should look for a rich uncle when things aren't so golden. Second, governmental action will distort the marketplace, thereby delaying the time until we have a ready pool of willing buyers and sellers again.

Although this is a very sharp pain in the "now", I believe too too much is being made of the lack of equity and lack of appreciation in this and other real estate markets. I think that focusing solely on the financial aspect of homeownership, is turning a "blind-eye" to the other great aspects of owning a home. First, you need a place to live. Second, dealing with landlords just plain sucks. Third, life isn't played out over a 3, 5, 10 or 20 year period. Life is long and it is beautiful. I had a finance professor that told us all to never consider our home an investment... It was good advice then, and it is good advice now.

Unfortunately, I believe that these numbers will only get worse. What I see is that there is still a flood of homes awaiting foreclosure. This comes at a time when some lenders are attempting to come up with a "streamlined" short sale process. I would agree that something needs to be done to shorten the short sale process. This could help the days on market and reduce buyer frustrations. But if this doesn't happen then at least maybe we could issue another tax credit...

Jay, I am of the opinion that the NAR has already pushed the government to do what it should not have done. Now the NAR is going to push all real estate agents into the RPR and houselogic BS. I feel like I am in a herd of sheep heading over the cliff. baa baa baaThe worst part is that all my peers seem to be for it and then claim they are "conservatives" not wanting the so called socialism from Obama. Can't anyone see the hypocrisy of it all?It is like wearing the American flag lapel pin and shouting out you are for torture.American Dream? Where did America go?

Are you sure that's not the FOX News political map?Just my bad attempt at humor. Here's hoping things turn around.

With United States recently coming out of the Financial recession in the last few months its really only time and patience from the banks that can help the mortgage payers to carry on paying for their house that is less worth than what they paid for. Hopefully in the next number of months the rise in house prices will start to go up to a degree that things will equal out and there will be less problems to predict for the mortgage payers out there.

Your right, it's a great time to buy if your not just trying to turn a big profit in a short time. In downtown austin, investors are still buying like crazy but then turning around and renting the property. They have found that if they hold on to these houses for a year or two they can still profit.

Wow, when you break it all down the numbers are staggering! 23% of all home owners owe more than their home is worth. My son bought a house in Round Rock TX, just north of Austin, over 5 years ago. That same house in the Austin area would most likely be worth less now.

I would guess that over half of AZ homeowners will be upside down within the next couple months. Once the job market improves we may start to see this turn around. On a positive note, this is a great time to buy a home if you are in it for the long term.

This market will just get worse...no matter how many new home buyer credits we issue. AZ, NV and FL have been hit particularly hard. We need to focus on keeping people in their homes.

The shot sale process really is a nightmare. I had a buyer walk after 2 months of no response. She had a very reasonable offer. What is with these banks? Are they overwhelmed or just lazy?

Ouch, I didn't realize AZ was doing so poorly.

Jay, I'm in Florida with 44+% upside down and it appears to be going up. I think this problem will continue to haunt us for some time. There are plenty of home owners upside down but who are still making plenty of income and as happy as can be. However, the day they get transferred 2 years from now or a life change happens 3 years from now, they will find themselves having to deal with the mortgage problem.

I do a good amount of Short Sale business but the banks need to get serious about Short Sales if they are the chosen path for upside down home owners who need out.

They need to update that map and include Southern Utah as a troubled Dark Red area. Our market followed Las Vegas not Salt Lake so we are just as screwed as NV and AZ but no one ever says anything about us. (We are a small community so Im not all that suprised.)

That's why percentage of foreclose property has been increased compare the previous year.

"The days of buying a home and selling it in a few months (or few years) for profit are over." I can only speak for the Indianapolis Metropolitian area. In terms of distressed sales, there is money to be had almost instantly. Case in point...new production condos that were built in the past 5 years are now going for 40 cents on the dollar and their market value is about 65 cents on the dollar with very little rehab (usually just cosmetics). Investor buyers are offering list or over just to secure the sale. They are either flipping or renting. I see lots of buyers that would normally buy a regular resale now looking at distressed housing for an investment."What, if anything, can the government do to stabilize the housing market? Should they do anything or should they let market dynamics play out?"My crystal ball is to cloudy to tell BUT when the tax credits expire and are not extended you and I may be twiddling our thumbs. My gut feeling says the the government should step back this summer and let market play its self out.

And a couple of good thoughts Chris! I was talking to a prospective client the other day. Relocating here for a 18 - 24 month assignment and was considering buying due to the "great deals" he'd heard about. He was stunned when I brought up renting. We ran through some numbers and that's exactly what made the most sense for his situation.

Great points Doug. Interest rates are at historical lows. Prices (at least around here) are back to realistic. It's not a bad time to buy for some folks, but it's never "A GREAT TIME TO BUY!" for everyone....

The shifting is one of my major concerns with the tax credit Ben (along with the fact my grandkids will end up paying for it). I don't think it motivates many people to buy a home that wouldn't otherwise. It may pull in buyers that would have bought anyway, so the net effect is little.(and buying a home just for the tax credit is a really bad reason to buy a home)

I think the numbers will get worse too. Issuing another tax credit though would be a horrible idea in my opinion...

"I am of the opinion that the NAR has already pushed the government to do what it should not have done."You won't get any argument from me Gregory...

A valid point (about selling now) Benjamin. The problem is, it's not all that easy to do a short sale. Even when all the stars align, and it's the right thing for everyone (including the lender) I've seen way too many lenders drag their feet and wind up foreclosing on the home, only to place it on the market and get LESS for it than if they'd approved the short sale...

Brilliant comment Troy! I agree completely that there are MANY great reasons to own a home other than as an "investment". It seems a house is the only thing people expect to always gain in material value.

I thought that was pretty funny Greg!

That's a very interesting fact. Now, those owners will have a great problem on their land.

Let the markets figure it out! Without Gov't intervention, supply and demand will work out the value details. Also, why does everybody think this is a bad market for sellers? Seriously name another time in history where (many) homeowners can get out from underneath a ton of debt with little to no consequence? I think homeowners should be jumping up and down! Do a short sale now, wait two to three years for your credit to get better, and buy again! I'm fairly certain that prices will still be incredibly affordable (if not more so).

Flipping houses is basically buying an undervalued home in need of repair or renovation and then selling it for a much higher price. Amid the recession, more owners are opting to sell their old houses and move to smaller ones instead of funding repairs. This presents a perfect opportunity for those who want to cash in on the trend. Whether youu00e2u0080u0099re a seller or a buyer of a u00e2u0080u009cfixer upper,u00e2u0080u009d you will get something from the web site. Visit http://bit.ly/w26f2 for more details.

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