Gregg Swann by a knockout in round one.
Hhaaaahaaaahaaa.
The so called experts who sell houses for a living didnt see this coming.
Either they were grossly incompetant, or extremely dishonest, which one was it?
If I was so bad in my area of expertise, I would be unemployed and living on the street.
How could I know your job better than you, I dont even live in your state, I dont know your city, and have never sold a house in my life.
I'm just a dumb bubble head, a chicken little, saying something doesnt smell right, back in 2004.
A bit early but ultimately correct.
How could you guys get this so wrong, do we really need hindsight to see how stupid the market was getting?

Wow...Had forgot about this ditty...I had written that in Jan 2008.

My frinds here we stand on the break of a possible World Economic Collapse...Word of posible riots is zooming in the underground sites...Hey maybe Kieth, Ron Paul, Max Keiser & Peter Schiff were right but at this point who cares?

If the boat sinks so do I and my family, along with the blind MBA idots and analysts that were so wrong for so long.

BUT luckily like some kook I've been getting ready...So when the times get hard just know this people...Show a lil love but be tough because this one is going to be really bad.

By the way I'm a state cop in Cali and we became FEMA for times of "Domestic Disturbances."

Sounded totally like some Alex Jones shit now it actually sounds like preparation for trouble.

Best of luck to all...If you see a big cop dressed in riot gear wacking people but waving at camaras...Wave back it might be me! :P

So here we are starting off in 2009. Keith has closed his blog, nothing left to argue. He was only wrong in not predicting how bad it became. Greg, while perhaps being good at selling homes, turned out to know less about economics than my dog. I really feel sorry for all the investor's money he squandered. In terms of NPV, they'll never get it back. He continues to make predictions on the market and spoon out advice. Apparently there is a fool born every minute.

This is utterly hilarious to read. My favorite part is Jay constantly trying to deflect the criticism of a post from 2006 - because it's SO OLD.

I guess there really isn't anything to be learned from history, at least not for the shallow.

Really, a simple, "We were wrong and should be much more responsible in the future and maybe even buy a calculator," could have ended this thread months ago. But I guess that's what Phoenix REALTORS are good at, deflections and blame shifting. Good luck everyone.

Jay's note: Commenter's name redacted 1/27/2010 at their request. Seems this comment is coming up high in Google for a search on their name. So I've agreed to edit their name out. I think that's a pretty nice gesture for some shallow Realtor who is only good at deflections and blame shifting.

And at the time it was written, what I said was true.

So it appeared that what you said is now a total baloney. What good are u then? Why should people pay a real estate guy like you for advice if you don't even know what the F are u saying?

"Keith might write abrasive sometimes, but he doesn’t lie for his material gain, does he?"

I wouldn't know Peter, except for extremely rare instances, I haven't read anything Keith has written since I wrote this post in November of 2006. And I certainly don't know the man.

And at the time it was written, what I said was true.

I don't lie for material gain either. That would be stupid.

I also don't make any claims of future housing prices -- rising, falling or neutral. That would be even more stupid. Oh I have my opinions, but they are just that, and only that.

No one has a crystal ball.

Anyone can make open ended predictions. "Housing prices will fall 50%". "Housing prices will rise 50%". So what, those are meaningless predictions. Heck, I'll go on record right now saying "Housing prices will be up 50%." And someday, I'll be right. May take 100 years, may take 10. But I'll be right eventually.

Keith was practically proclaiming that the world economy was on the verge of collapse. It didn't. Could it? Sure. Anything can happen...

> I’ve yet to see the 50% (and more) drops in prices that many “bubblers” predicted last year.

Just wait, in many places we are already seeing 25% drops, and 50% doesn't seem improbable anymore - hello San Diego, hello Las Vegas, hello Phoenix, hello Miami. Keith might write abrasive sometimes, but he doesn't lie for his material gain, does he?

*sigh* You're commenting on a 15 month old post "Mom". And clearly you've read little to nothing on this very blog upon which you grace us with your presence. How about YESTERDAY'S post where I spelled out in no uncertain terms it may NOT be a good time to buy?

I will (and have) freely admit that much Realtor Speak (and NAR speak) is a load of baloney.

I suspect many that have read another blog I write, NARWisdom.com would tell you that I have no problem calling out that organization.

Thanks for stopping by! (and making yourself look. Well. Foolish)

Oh sure Jay. You want to know what's even more tiresome than those predicting doom and gloom, which isn't too far from the truth these days? Well, I'll tell you....this little association called the NAR and its Borg-like clones called REALTORS (make sure to scream it in caps people!) who kept preaching "Now is a great time to buy" and "Prices never go down". And yet many realtors are STILL saying "Now is a great time to buy"!!! Shut the &$%@ up, would you please?!?! On a financial basis, why in the world would I pay more to buy than to rent, when homes are not increasing in value and are actually decreasing at an alarming rate?? Do REALTORS need to take some basic finance courses? Hell yes!!!

Glad it worked out for you Noodles. Keith gets some thing correct. But his doom and gloom collapse of the world economy drivel gets tiresome. There are plenty of other places to find solid advice without all the rhetoric. Regardless, it's good that you did the right thing for you.

Say whatever you like but due to Kieth's blog, I sold at a proper time, made a little $$$ to pay bills and actually downsized; while all around me people kept digging themselves into a deeper hole.

Everyone in Monterey Ca. both sellers, buyers and sure as heck anyone involved in the Housing market in some faucet...IE construction, suppliers, plumbers even furniture places are starving or look totally lost.

If I had followed the so-called experts I'd be in the same boat...Not gloating but stating the facts that "The experts were all wrong except for the crazy tin foil crowd."

True there is no riots in the streets but there is a certain feel of shock in the air.

As I leave I'll leave with a story: In late 2004 I started feeling weird about all the RE market...I found Kieth's Blog and it made so much sense...I told friends, family and even my RE agent who owned 3 homes...No one listened.

My sis is on some weird 3 mortgage thing basically trying to wait for a buyer in Riverside...3 of my friends just lost their homes AND my RE agent who used to look at me weird when I kept telling her to lower the price is done after "KNOWING the Monterey Area as an agent for 20 years."

She didn't know when to fold them and is down just to her primary home with business falling probably at 50% of last year which sucked.

I was lucky...not smart but I thank God for Kieth's advice which may have saved me from a financial suicide.

It's pretty obvious the housing bubble is in serious trouble and that they just may bring the economy down with it.
It is extremely dishonest at this late date to try to paint a rosy picture of the RE scenario, but some more ethically challenged realtors are attempting to do just that.

"keith wins" writes:

-----

“I’m not exactly sure what a “Hungy” Realtor is…”

That would be you my friend, no?

-----

Uh, no. First of all, "Hungy" isn't a word. "Hungry" is clearly a word. And at 230 pounds, I'm far from hungry. We're also in the midst of one of our best years ever, so affording food in the future doesn't seem to be an issue.

Run along now, and see if you can find a post a little fresher than 10 months old to comment on.

Looks like Keith and his minions are on another Greg Swann tear. Whatever floats their boat I suppose.

"I’m not exactly sure what a “Hungy” Realtor is…"

That would be you my friend, no? :)

Greg is in total defence mode.

He edits comments off that he does not agree with on his blog. Only one side of the story is told on Bloodhound.

HP does not practice censorship like Greg does, and by that fact alone, HP wins hands down.

Sure they get some lead balloons but the dimonds shine through along with the duds.

HP is a free flow of ideas, Bloodhound is a dumping ground of one sided information.

What's up, guys? Hey Todd, turns out you're clueless, huh? Swan-dive, the all-knowing bloodhound - how is it that you didn't call this bubble as accurately as Keith?

Perhaps Keith and his 'minions' know more than you think. Because you, definitely, have been dead wrong all the way through these last 2 years.

And why would I listen to you in the future?

> I’m not exactly sure what a “Hungy” Realtor is…

"The men don't know, but the little girls all understand."

From Shakespeare to Jim Morrison -- now that's a wasted youth!

Oh and as far as hungry goes... I'm trying to eat less these days. Would love to lose about 20 pounds... even in this holiday season of office party's an whatnot. So I'm not so sure what a hungry Realtor is either.

Through all the dustups, I was glad to see that the Realtor side of things stayed above the fray and didn't stoop the the immature levels of the many HP contributors.

I'll be the first one to say that I think there are some real interesting folks that offer intelligent data on the HP site... but you have to filter out a whole heck of a lot of noise to find the diamonds in the rough.

HP continues to be a read of mine as I go through the blogs on a daily basis. I guess I'm just a sucker for poorly framed news, since I don't watch the regular main stream types of media any longer. HP is sorta my 'fix' for that kind of thing.

Yep, I edited the "name" of the commenter above John's comment. I don't like doing it, but my kids read this and that was a *completely* inappropriate "name". If you don't like it, feel free to never come back.

I must say that I find it interesting that "Keith" on Housing Panic asks his commenters to not use profanity and to "keep it clean", yet they have no problem leaving filth on someone else's blog. Speaks volumes to their character doesn't it?

I did leave the URL as it was entered. It's a good indicator of the maturity and intelligence level of the one who left that comment.

I won't bother to respond to the comment itself, because John Lockwood said it far better than I ever could. I will admit however, I'm not exactly sure what a "Hungy" Realtor is...

Really? Well, I don't know Greg Swann very well, except to note that many folks link back to his blog. Probably I should as well, because it's quite successful.

Clearly, however, on the face of it he signs his names to his own work, so I'd be more inclined to believe that epithet would apply more particularly to an anonymous, ad hominem wielding homophobe who I'm sure begrudges the enjoyment that anyone feels in owning their own home.

As for your characterization of most Realtors®, you're simply wrong in addition to your good qualities, whatever they may be.

Greg Swann is a corrupt desperate loser. Like most realtors. Hungy, mean, unethical and immoral.

Housingpanic cleaned his clock. The guy has no career after today

Bless you, sir. Thank you.

"When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in batallions."

Gregg Swann by a knockout in round one.
Hhaaaahaaaahaaa.
The so called experts who sell houses for a living didnt see this coming.
Either they were grossly incompetant, or extremely dishonest, which one was it?
If I was so bad in my area of expertise, I would be unemployed and living on the street.
How could I know your job better than you, I dont even live in your state, I dont know your city, and have never sold a house in my life.
I'm just a dumb bubble head, a chicken little, saying something doesnt smell right, back in 2004.
A bit early but ultimately correct.
How could you guys get this so wrong, do we really need hindsight to see how stupid the market was getting?

Wow...Had forgot about this ditty...I had written that in Jan 2008.

My frinds here we stand on the break of a possible World Economic Collapse...Word of posible riots is zooming in the underground sites...Hey maybe Kieth, Ron Paul, Max Keiser & Peter Schiff were right but at this point who cares?

If the boat sinks so do I and my family, along with the blind MBA idots and analysts that were so wrong for so long.

BUT luckily like some kook I've been getting ready...So when the times get hard just know this people...Show a lil love but be tough because this one is going to be really bad.

By the way I'm a state cop in Cali and we became FEMA for times of "Domestic Disturbances."

Sounded totally like some Alex Jones shit now it actually sounds like preparation for trouble.

Best of luck to all...If you see a big cop dressed in riot gear wacking people but waving at camaras...Wave back it might be me! :P

So here we are starting off in 2009. Keith has closed his blog, nothing left to argue. He was only wrong in not predicting how bad it became. Greg, while perhaps being good at selling homes, turned out to know less about economics than my dog. I really feel sorry for all the investor's money he squandered. In terms of NPV, they'll never get it back. He continues to make predictions on the market and spoon out advice. Apparently there is a fool born every minute.

This is utterly hilarious to read. My favorite part is Jay constantly trying to deflect the criticism of a post from 2006 - because it's SO OLD.

I guess there really isn't anything to be learned from history, at least not for the shallow.

Really, a simple, "We were wrong and should be much more responsible in the future and maybe even buy a calculator," could have ended this thread months ago. But I guess that's what Phoenix REALTORS are good at, deflections and blame shifting. Good luck everyone.

Jay's note: Commenter's name redacted 1/27/2010 at their request. Seems this comment is coming up high in Google for a search on their name. So I've agreed to edit their name out. I think that's a pretty nice gesture for some shallow Realtor who is only good at deflections and blame shifting.

And at the time it was written, what I said was true.

So it appeared that what you said is now a total baloney. What good are u then? Why should people pay a real estate guy like you for advice if you don't even know what the F are u saying?

"Keith might write abrasive sometimes, but he doesnu00e2u0080u0099t lie for his material gain, does he?"

I wouldn't know Peter, except for extremely rare instances, I haven't read anything Keith has written since I wrote this post in November of 2006. And I certainly don't know the man.

And at the time it was written, what I said was true.

I don't lie for material gain either. That would be stupid.

I also don't make any claims of future housing prices -- rising, falling or neutral. That would be even more stupid. Oh I have my opinions, but they are just that, and only that.

No one has a crystal ball.

Anyone can make open ended predictions. "Housing prices will fall 50%". "Housing prices will rise 50%". So what, those are meaningless predictions. Heck, I'll go on record right now saying "Housing prices will be up 50%." And someday, I'll be right. May take 100 years, may take 10. But I'll be right eventually.

Keith was practically proclaiming that the world economy was on the verge of collapse. It didn't. Could it? Sure. Anything can happen...

> Iu00e2u0080u0099ve yet to see the 50% (and more) drops in prices that many u00e2u0080u009cbubblersu00e2u0080u009d predicted last year.

Just wait, in many places we are already seeing 25% drops, and 50% doesn't seem improbable anymore - hello San Diego, hello Las Vegas, hello Phoenix, hello Miami. Keith might write abrasive sometimes, but he doesn't lie for his material gain, does he?

*sigh* You're commenting on a 15 month old post "Mom". And clearly you've read little to nothing on this very blog upon which you grace us with your presence. How about YESTERDAY'S post where I spelled out in no uncertain terms it may NOT be a good time to buy?

I will (and have) freely admit that much Realtor Speak (and NAR speak) is a load of baloney.

I suspect many that have read another blog I write, NARWisdom.com would tell you that I have no problem calling out that organization.

Thanks for stopping by! (and making yourself look. Well. Foolish)

Oh sure Jay. You want to know what's even more tiresome than those predicting doom and gloom, which isn't too far from the truth these days? Well, I'll tell you....this little association called the NAR and its Borg-like clones called REALTORS (make sure to scream it in caps people!) who kept preaching "Now is a great time to buy" and "Prices never go down". And yet many realtors are STILL saying "Now is a great time to buy"!!! Shut the &$%@ up, would you please?!?! On a financial basis, why in the world would I pay more to buy than to rent, when homes are not increasing in value and are actually decreasing at an alarming rate?? Do REALTORS need to take some basic finance courses? Hell yes!!!

Glad it worked out for you Noodles. Keith gets some thing correct. But his doom and gloom collapse of the world economy drivel gets tiresome. There are plenty of other places to find solid advice without all the rhetoric. Regardless, it's good that you did the right thing for you.

Say whatever you like but due to Kieth's blog, I sold at a proper time, made a little $$$ to pay bills and actually downsized; while all around me people kept digging themselves into a deeper hole.

Everyone in Monterey Ca. both sellers, buyers and sure as heck anyone involved in the Housing market in some faucet...IE construction, suppliers, plumbers even furniture places are starving or look totally lost.

If I had followed the so-called experts I'd be in the same boat...Not gloating but stating the facts that "The experts were all wrong except for the crazy tin foil crowd."

True there is no riots in the streets but there is a certain feel of shock in the air.

As I leave I'll leave with a story: In late 2004 I started feeling weird about all the RE market...I found Kieth's Blog and it made so much sense...I told friends, family and even my RE agent who owned 3 homes...No one listened.

My sis is on some weird 3 mortgage thing basically trying to wait for a buyer in Riverside...3 of my friends just lost their homes AND my RE agent who used to look at me weird when I kept telling her to lower the price is done after "KNOWING the Monterey Area as an agent for 20 years."

She didn't know when to fold them and is down just to her primary home with business falling probably at 50% of last year which sucked.

I was lucky...not smart but I thank God for Kieth's advice which may have saved me from a financial suicide.

"It is extremely dishonest at this late date..."

Speaking of late dates, you do realize you're commenting on a post from last year, don't you?

Please, point out one place on this blog where I've "painted a rosy picture". I've presented the stats, and am on public record as saying it is NOT a good time to buy or sell a home for everyone.

Yes, the "bubble" happened, sort of. I've yet to see the 50% (and more) drops in prices that many "bubblers" predicted last year. And the year before...

It's pretty obvious the housing bubble is in serious trouble and that they just may bring the economy down with it.
It is extremely dishonest at this late date to try to paint a rosy picture of the RE scenario, but some more ethically challenged realtors are attempting to do just that.

"keith wins" writes:

-----

u00e2u0080u009cIu00e2u0080u0099m not exactly sure what a u00e2u0080u009cHungyu00e2u0080u009d Realtor isu00e2u0080u00a6u00e2u0080u009d

That would be you my friend, no?

-----

Uh, no. First of all, "Hungy" isn't a word. "Hungry" is clearly a word. And at 230 pounds, I'm far from hungry. We're also in the midst of one of our best years ever, so affording food in the future doesn't seem to be an issue.

Run along now, and see if you can find a post a little fresher than 10 months old to comment on.

Looks like Keith and his minions are on another Greg Swann tear. Whatever floats their boat I suppose.

"Iu00e2u0080u0099m not exactly sure what a u00e2u0080u009cHungyu00e2u0080u009d Realtor isu00e2u0080u00a6"

That would be you my friend, no? :)

Greg is in total defence mode.

He edits comments off that he does not agree with on his blog. Only one side of the story is told on Bloodhound.

HP does not practice censorship like Greg does, and by that fact alone, HP wins hands down.

Sure they get some lead balloons but the dimonds shine through along with the duds.

HP is a free flow of ideas, Bloodhound is a dumping ground of one sided information.

What's up, guys? Hey Todd, turns out you're clueless, huh? Swan-dive, the all-knowing bloodhound - how is it that you didn't call this bubble as accurately as Keith?

Perhaps Keith and his 'minions' know more than you think. Because you, definitely, have been dead wrong all the way through these last 2 years.

And why would I listen to you in the future?

> Iu00e2u0080u0099m not exactly sure what a u00e2u0080u009cHungyu00e2u0080u009d Realtor isu00e2u0080u00a6

"The men don't know, but the little girls all understand."

From Shakespeare to Jim Morrison -- now that's a wasted youth!

Oh and as far as hungry goes... I'm trying to eat less these days. Would love to lose about 20 pounds... even in this holiday season of office party's an whatnot. So I'm not so sure what a hungry Realtor is either.

Through all the dustups, I was glad to see that the Realtor side of things stayed above the fray and didn't stoop the the immature levels of the many HP contributors.

I'll be the first one to say that I think there are some real interesting folks that offer intelligent data on the HP site... but you have to filter out a whole heck of a lot of noise to find the diamonds in the rough.

HP continues to be a read of mine as I go through the blogs on a daily basis. I guess I'm just a sucker for poorly framed news, since I don't watch the regular main stream types of media any longer. HP is sorta my 'fix' for that kind of thing.

Yep, I edited the "name" of the commenter above John's comment. I don't like doing it, but my kids read this and that was a *completely* inappropriate "name". If you don't like it, feel free to never come back.

I must say that I find it interesting that "Keith" on Housing Panic asks his commenters to not use profanity and to "keep it clean", yet they have no problem leaving filth on someone else's blog. Speaks volumes to their character doesn't it?

I did leave the URL as it was entered. It's a good indicator of the maturity and intelligence level of the one who left that comment.

I won't bother to respond to the comment itself, because John Lockwood said it far better than I ever could. I will admit however, I'm not exactly sure what a "Hungy" Realtor is...

Really? Well, I don't know Greg Swann very well, except to note that many folks link back to his blog. Probably I should as well, because it's quite successful.

Clearly, however, on the face of it he signs his names to his own work, so I'd be more inclined to believe that epithet would apply more particularly to an anonymous, ad hominem wielding homophobe who I'm sure begrudges the enjoyment that anyone feels in owning their own home.

As for your characterization of most Realtorsu00c2u00ae, you're simply wrong in addition to your good qualities, whatever they may be.

Greg Swann is a corrupt desperate loser. Like most realtors. Hungy, mean, unethical and immoral.

Housingpanic cleaned his clock. The guy has no career after today

Bless you, sir. Thank you.

"When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in batallions."