Microsoft Online's Real Estate "Editor's Pick" today is an article by Marilyn Lewis titled, "The Riskiest Housing Markets".
Data from PMI's Summer 2007 US Market Risk Index Model (previously discussed at length here), shows the Phoenix real estate market has a 64.6% chance to see a decline in housing prices over the next two years. Given the staggering appreciation rates we've had in the recent past, and the large amount of resale and spec inventory we're currently seeing in Phoenix, a continued decline isn't beyond the realm of possibility. How much that decline may be (if any) is the subject of much speculation and is not covered in the PMI report.
I enjoyed talking to Marilyn Lewis about this report and the Phoenix real estate market. She was the consummate professional. In her article she said:
"There's no question that our housing prices are declining here," says Jay Thompson, an agent with Century 21 Aware near Phoenix. "Our appreciation rate was 54% average at one point in mid-2005-2006, so it is no surprise to anybody here … that prices were going to go down."
That isn't exactly what I said (note the ellipses in the quote…). What I recall saying was that is should have been no surprise to anybody here that appreciation rates of 50%+ could not be sustained, and that a price declines after a run up like that are not uncommon. The ellipses in my quote cover about 15 minutes of conversation with the reporter. To Marlylin's credit, she didn't twist the conversation completely out of context as sometimes happens with reporter translations of the spoken word.
It's a pretty good article and summary of the PMI report. Worth the read… I'm still trying to find old PMI reports to see how accurate they've been in the past. Economic prediction models are notoriously flakey, it'd be interesting to assess the accuracy of this one.
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{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
Funny how reporters say what you said while leaving certain things out and how that changes what you said so very much. Your market will recover with time. How much of the run-up was investors speculating?
Holy mackerel!
First local TV and now national websites! From copper thieves to the real estate economy.
I can’t wait to see where you show up next week.
(You know, this blog thing is so crazy it just might work.)
Not suprising that a reporter would use your comments out of context.
I’ve talked to the media quite a bit, mostly local. I’m never sure how things are going to appear, what my quotes will sound like. It can be unnerving to a degree.
However, having a blog sure helps. It is one way to have the final word or to articulate what you were trying to say.
You mentioned speaking to Marilyn Lewis of MSN. I am trying to reach her on another matter. Do you have a contact email or phone.
Brian Grant, MD
1158 17th Avenue East
Seattle, WA 98112
phone 206 4473449
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