The Arizona Republic ran an article today, Phoenix May be Losing People. They say that for the first time in modern history, the population of Phoenix may be declining.
It’s a very interesting article, particularly given the explosive growth that Phoenix has seen over the past several years (Almost 400 people per day have moved to the Phoenix area in the last 7 years).
Citing indicators such as foreclosure numbers sky rocketing, reduced trash collection, lower crime, a lower number of water hookups, and reduced tax revenues, the Republic says these may be indicators of a population decline in Phoenix.
Maybe, maybe not.
There could be factors other than a population decline at play. The national (world?) recession, tighter immigration status verification laws, and the housing market decline spring immediately to mind and are briefly mentioned in the article.
Interestingly, the article appears to be referring only to Phoenix proper, and the suburbs / greater Phoenix metro area garner no mention what-so-ever.
Based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s July 2007 projections, Phoenix is home to 1.55 million people and the Phoenix Metropolitan Area has a population of 4.18 million.
That’s a lot of suburbia.
A glaring omission in the Republic article may be that people are simply moving out of Phoenix and into the suburbs. I can’t say this is fact, but it certainly warrants investigation. Particularly if one is going to lay claim that the Phoenix population is declining. A population shift out of the city and into the suburbs certainly isn’t beyond the realm of possibility.
While the Phoenix population may indeed be declining, without giving thought to what is happening in the rest of the metro area, it is difficult to say for sure what — if anything — this Republic article truly means.
Hat tip to David Lorti.
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{ 28 comments… read them below or add one }
Phoenix’s population isn’t declining. Necessary housing units are declining, however, as people that used to live separately are moving in together. I hear it all of the time: “I’m moving in with my mom, brother, sister, dad, ex-husband, boyfriend, friend, etc…”
Fewer people are currently moving to Phoenix, but I’m still getting relo calls (including 2 today), it’s just a slower rate than before. I’d estimate 1000-2000 per month, rather than 10,000 per month as a few years ago.
Steve Belt´s last blog post..Phoenix Real Estate Market Update - #21
It’s interesting that in December Arizona was cited as the 2nd fastest growing state in the nation, so newcomers are moving somewhere.
One of the main underlying reasons we’ve been investing in the local area is because of the strong population / job growth and projections for more of the same.
Either I’m a fool and my research has been blatantly wrong (very possible), something has drastically changed locally (and quickly), or the Republic is, as you suggest, not quite presenting a full picture.
Hopefully the latter. Both Steve and Dru make good points.
Property Qwest Blog´s last blog post..Own a Home for $1000
Jay-
Your comment on the idea of people moving outward is an interesting one. I think you hit on something there. In some sense, Phoenix is going to have to compete more and more with the outerlying cities than ever before. Glendale is up and coming, Chandler is up and coming, Scottsdale is Scottsdale, Gilbert, etc.
To use a phrase that seems apt here, there is a certain level of the ‘rise of the rest’ going on here. And it’s not a foregone conclusion that employers select Phoenix to relocate to. They are looking more intently at cities like Chandler. And where the jobs and industry are, the people follow.
Thanks for the earlier comment and your insights here.
David Lorti´s last blog post..Is Phoenix Actually Shrinking?
What about death?
Isn’t Phoenix a “magnet” for retirees? Or is it Surprise?
I figured there must be a hefty amount of deaths in Phoenix and suburbs.
Jim Gatos´s last blog post..Like smoking pot? Here’s ANOTHER reason to LOVE Massachusetts!
I am with Steve on this one - people are doing the “consolidating living” , sharing expenses to make ends meet! Since Christmas I have had two relo inquiries that are looking to relocate in the next two months.
Jim -
All of the Phoenix metro area (which includes Surprise) is a magnet for retirees. But many (MANY) are only here for the winter months. Sure, some die while they are here, but I wouldn’t think at a rate that would equal those moving here (and giving birth) permanently.
We too get relo calls on a consistent basis. We also have a lot of Canadian clients (part timers, who do things mentioned in the article like shut off water and trash collection for a significant portion of the year).
I’m not buying this at all. Way to much growth going on in Phoenix for the population to be declining. Just like in Tucson there’s no way you could convince me the population is shrinking.
I think you hit it on the head with the idea that many may be heading to the suburbs. Perhaps with the housing crunch, a whole new lot of people that used to just have apartments or town houses are now looking for more space or bigger lots in new houses as foreclosures force some to sell their home for less than they bought it. It could just be that more people are relocating around Phoenix rather than leaving.
Since you Arizona was just rated as the 2nd fasted growing State in the US, and Phoenix as one of the most popular places to live in Arizona, then I find it hard to believe people are leaving-I’d say they are probably just relocating to the suburbs too.
Could it just be that the rate of people moving there has slowed compared with past years? I’m also for thinking that people are now moving in together to help make ends meet.
Leon Belenky-One Bal Harbour´s last blog post..Make an Aqualina Condo Your Next Home
We had a similar thing happen in Raleigh-supposedly the population was decreasing, according to our local paper several years ago; however, if you looked carefully, that time was the same as all the small suburb towns exploded-showing that indeed people were moving out to the suburbs, but as a whole the entire area was rapidly growing outwards, not leaving completely.
Lenda Goudling-Raleigh NC Realtor´s last blog post..In Cary NC, Cooking Oil Recycling Pilot Program goes curbside!
Could it be that there are not enough younger people moving in to replace all the old people who are dieing? Then again all I really know about the Phoenix real estate market is what I read here and what my dad tells me, but then again I generally discount much of what he says on the subject as it is very old school.
James Boyer´s last blog post..Harding NJ Homes For Sale / What Sold In Dec 08
@James - Wow, that was blunt. Are there that many old people dieing in Phoenix? lol
Annie Maloney´s last blog post..Sevierville Real Estate
I would be more inclined to believe that the population is simply not growing at as high of a rate as before. This would make more sense to me, because I can’t imagine there being such a relatively quick reversal.
The AZ-Republic is always putting a BS spin on things in order to be sensationalistic and gain more readers. I can’t stand their product - news (if you could call it that).
Scottsdale Homes´s last blog post..Fountain Hills Market Reports - November 2008
It seems like it could just be the rate of growth is leveling out or slowing, and in comparison to growth in previous years, the stats could look like there is a decline in population when that really isn’t the case. Perhaps? Fun to try to figure out though.
Meg Zoller-Houston Realtor´s last blog post..Houston Realtor Defined!
Matt - no kidding. Given their subscription rates (or lack thereof) I’d say they are even failing with this tactic…
I haven’t done the statistical analysis to determine whether Phoenix’s population is declining or not but what I do know is that the journalists today are doing one poor job of using statistics. The seldom try to do a thorough job with these types of analysis. Anymore it is just about selling papers.
James Wheelock´s last blog post..Villages Of Tour 18 On The Tour 18 Golf Course
Phoenix has been one of the hottest growing markets for a while now, and if the suburbia is not included in the statistics I do not see how any of the information is valid. I have never been to Phoenix, but in Atlanta it is quite common to live 10, 20 or even more miles outside of the city and commute into town, so is someone who moved to an area a little outside the city limit not “moving to Atlanta”? Also, the first line in the article has the words “COULD be shrinking”, doesn’t sound too convincing.
Atlantanomics´s last blog post..2008 - Vinings Condos and Townhomes
Yeah I’m going to have to go with the “people are moving out of Phoenix, but into areas like Chandler, Queen Creek, Laveen, Buckeye, Surprise, Maricopa etc.. Until I notice less traffic, I refuse to believe we’re losing residents.
Jay,
My guess is your print rag newspaper is trying to stir the pot with some leading edge news story designed, in the newsroom, to sell some trees and bleach (newspapers). If it wasn’t for bloggers like you stealing their readership we wouldn’t have stories like this.
In other words, it’s your fault the population of Phoenix is declining. In Denver, our population is growing. It has nothing to do with birth rates or the opposite, it’s just that Denver is a great place to live. Whether you have a job or not.
I highly recommend all the people who are creating the exodus from Phoenix to consider Denver! (except the ones about to die)
-Bob
Bob Maiocco´s last blog post..Home For Sale in Denver at Sloans Lake
Declining population? Probably YES!
Leon’s comment about growing, but more slowely, likely is the best case scenario.
I doubt the “moving to sister cities in the suburbs out of Phoenix” angle is probable. But hey–it’s an o.k. guess.
Population growth here for most of each of the last 50 years has been at about a 4% per year rate. More likely to happen now is that we are going to be having less than a 1% population growth for the next couple of years. And it could go negative for some years to come (including this one).
And for us, where people sometimes ask “What is the industry in the Phoenix area?”, meaning what are the top type(s) of business here, the truth is, more than not, in a word–GROWTH. When we don’t grow, we are really in “trouble”.
As an indicator of this flat lining or negative growth, and in courses I lead for agents where I cover trends of this type, I cite the “U-Haul Factor”. For the 1st time ever, Arizona is not one of the Top 10 net inbound destination states for trips of trucks of U-Haul Intl’. U-Haul reports that it is now renting almost 40 percent more trucks to people moving out of the Phoenix area than to people moving in.
Longer term, 4-5 years from now, we will be back on track with the growth we have become accustomed to…in the interim, it’s going to be quieter.
Seems like a lot of cities in North America are experiencing this, guess the new yuppies need to spend a little less time in the boardroom and more time in the bedroom, haha.
Ryan Philipenko - Edmonton Real Estate Agent
Edmonton Real Estate Blog´s last blog post..Your home may be worth more than you thought: CREA
Jim,
Over here in Las Vegas we are experiencing a slowdown in new resident move-ins. The last figures published still showed a net gain, but the tremendous growth of the past two decades seems to be coming to an end. When the real estate bubble burst thousands of construction jobs were lost and forced people to leave town. Now this full-blown recession is causing more trouble on the job market, especially on the Strip. Let’s see what the numbers are when the next report is issued.
Even if people are shifting form Phoenix it relieves the city from the extra load. But the point is why are they shifting over?
Sandy´s last blog post..Dental and vision insurance in Georgia
I can see a trend there. It seems like a one way traffic downwards.