Comments on: Phoenix Real Estate Stats – Not always what they seem… http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/phoenix-real-estate-stats-%e2%80%93-not-always-what-they-seem%e2%80%a6/ Phoenix Real Estate - Anything & Everything About It. Plus Random Musings... Thu, 09 Feb 2012 23:15:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Charlotte Real Estat http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/phoenix-real-estate-stats-%e2%80%93-not-always-what-they-seem%e2%80%a6/#comment-61249 Charlotte Real Estat Sun, 06 Dec 2009 03:32:12 +0000 http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/?p=2214#comment-61249 Sure you've heard, there are "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" and while these type stats are sound to tell you where the market has been and how it performed in the main, their predictive utility on a particular house is just not there. And Averages as you point out vary from sub-market to sub-market, but it is worse that that! 2 Examples- the first is Days On Market. If the average DOM is 120 days and you are showing property that is on the market say 7 days, often a buyer assumes because the average DOM is 120, they have time to make their decision on this house, thinking, "after all its only been on the market 7 days." That thinking is a misunderstanding because the 120 day average is composed of many great homes, offered at good prices that sell in 1-10 days, and many others that don' sell for 6-8 months or more, and once they've sold, and they are averaged together, you see a 120 DOM average. About the time you wrote this I had a buyer interested in buying several new townhouses in a very nice new community, top 5 % for the area. However, he was watching area average cost per square foots on Cyberhomes, so of course he was coming up with prices that were ridiculous for these townhouses. I explained, showed him comparable sold property, and explained again, and he never could understand that looking at an average is useful to compare it to other neighborhoods, or see trends over time, but offers little predictive power on a particular house at some time in the future. All of the townhomes sold well above average square foot price, but still at great prices, and he missed out on all of them. Using Median numbers is better, but you must also know the range, the highs and the lows, and how to apply them to come up with useful numbers. Sure you've heard, there are "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" and while these type stats are sound to tell you where the market has been and how it performed in the main, their predictive utility on a particular house is just not there. And Averages as you point out vary from sub-market to sub-market, but it is worse that that!

2 Examples- the first is Days On Market. If the average DOM is 120 days and you are showing property that is on the market say 7 days, often a buyer assumes because the average DOM is 120, they have time to make their decision on this house, thinking, "after all its only been on the market 7 days."

That thinking is a misunderstanding because the 120 day average is composed of many great homes, offered at good prices that sell in 1-10 days, and many others that don' sell for 6-8 months or more, and once they've sold, and they are averaged together, you see a 120 DOM average.

About the time you wrote this I had a buyer interested in buying several new townhouses in a very nice new community, top 5 % for the area. However, he was watching area average cost per square foots on Cyberhomes, so of course he was coming up with prices that were ridiculous for these townhouses.

I explained, showed him comparable sold property, and explained again, and he never could understand that looking at an average is useful to compare it to other neighborhoods, or see trends over time, but offers little predictive power on a particular house at some time in the future. All of the townhomes sold well above average square foot price, but still at great prices, and he missed out on all of them.

Using Median numbers is better, but you must also know the range, the highs and the lows, and how to apply them to come up with useful numbers.

]]> By: Jason Humpal-Lovelan http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/phoenix-real-estate-stats-%e2%80%93-not-always-what-they-seem%e2%80%a6/#comment-54531 Jason Humpal-Lovelan Sun, 31 May 2009 22:22:03 +0000 http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/?p=2214#comment-54531 Just another great reminder that stats, while great, should always be carefully looked at so you know WHY the stats are giving the info they are giving. Thanks, Jay! Just another great reminder that stats, while great, should always be carefully looked at so you know WHY the stats are giving the info they are giving. Thanks, Jay!

]]> By: Margaret Safford-Met http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/phoenix-real-estate-stats-%e2%80%93-not-always-what-they-seem%e2%80%a6/#comment-52908 Margaret Safford-Met Thu, 14 May 2009 22:37:05 +0000 http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/?p=2214#comment-52908 Stats are so great, but you do have to be careful and make sure you know what you are looking at because they can be easily twisted or missunderstood. *<em>*<em>Margaret Safford-Metro Atlanta Real Estate´s last blog post..<a href="http://www.saffordsells.com/blog/05/metro-atlanta-real-estate-market/">Does the Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Mimic the New HGTV Shows?</a></em></abbr></abbr></em></em> Stats are so great, but you do have to be careful and make sure you know what you are looking at because they can be easily twisted or missunderstood.

**Margaret Safford-Metro Atlanta Real Estate´s last blog post..Does the Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Mimic the New HGTV Shows?</abbr></abbr>

]]> By: Benjamin Ficker@Phoe http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/phoenix-real-estate-stats-%e2%80%93-not-always-what-they-seem%e2%80%a6/#comment-52686 Benjamin Ficker@Phoe Tue, 12 May 2009 01:25:54 +0000 http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/?p=2214#comment-52686 The numbers up in Portland (where I am at, for now) are just as misleading. Its also good to show the difference between Average DOM (or whatever stat) and the Median. I had an agent do a bpo for a listing that used the Average price per square foot in stead of the median, which was $18 per square foot less. Needless to say, the bpo was off by over $30k. The numbers up in Portland (where I am at, for now) are just as misleading. Its also good to show the difference between Average DOM (or whatever stat) and the Median. I had an agent do a bpo for a listing that used the Average price per square foot in stead of the median, which was $18 per square foot less. Needless to say, the bpo was off by over $30k.

]]> By: Bobbie McGowan-Ottaw http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/phoenix-real-estate-stats-%e2%80%93-not-always-what-they-seem%e2%80%a6/#comment-52676 Bobbie McGowan-Ottaw Mon, 11 May 2009 22:19:50 +0000 http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/?p=2214#comment-52676 Just goes to show how important having a real estate expert for your local area can be! Stats can be great, but if you don't know how to look at them, you can completely miss the info-esp with real estate where everything is so super-local! One neighbourhood might be fantastic for selling, and another might not be-but you wouldn't know from looking at area stats-great point to make! Just goes to show how important having a real estate expert for your local area can be! Stats can be great, but if you don't know how to look at them, you can completely miss the info-esp with real estate where everything is so super-local! One neighbourhood might be fantastic for selling, and another might not be-but you wouldn't know from looking at area stats-great point to make!

]]> By: Leon Belenky- Icon M http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/phoenix-real-estate-stats-%e2%80%93-not-always-what-they-seem%e2%80%a6/#comment-52636 Leon Belenky- Icon M Sun, 10 May 2009 22:33:35 +0000 http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/?p=2214#comment-52636 You hit it on the head; stats can be so great to have on hand, so long as you remember to dig and take a look at all the factors that are producing those stats! Great explanation of how stats can look like a buyer's market, yet the market truly is still a seller's-thanks for sharing! You hit it on the head; stats can be so great to have on hand, so long as you remember to dig and take a look at all the factors that are producing those stats! Great explanation of how stats can look like a buyer's market, yet the market truly is still a seller's-thanks for sharing!

]]> By: homesold602 (doug jo http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/phoenix-real-estate-stats-%e2%80%93-not-always-what-they-seem%e2%80%a6/#comment-52467 homesold602 (doug jo Tue, 05 May 2009 18:32:23 +0000 http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/?p=2214#comment-52467 <a href="http://tinyurl.com/ck7vop">http://tinyurl.com/ck7vop</a> http://tinyurl.com/ck7vop

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]]> By: Clint Mello http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/phoenix-real-estate-stats-%e2%80%93-not-always-what-they-seem%e2%80%a6/#comment-52339 Clint Mello Mon, 04 May 2009 07:42:38 +0000 http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/?p=2214#comment-52339 Hi, Thanks I enjoyed your blog . You have a lot of good information that I can share and emplement into my realestate investment business. I also have a <a href="https://connectedinvestors.com/gcmmello/isell/button/Wholesale+deals"> wholesale real estate </a> website I will book mark your site.Thank you for the great info. Clint Mello <a href="http://www.myrockrealestate.com">www.myrockrealestate.com</a> Hi, Thanks I enjoyed your blog . You have a lot of good information that I can share and emplement into my realestate investment business. I also have a <a href="https://connectedinvestors.com/gcmmello/isell/button/Wholesale+deals"&gt; wholesale real estate website I will book mark your site.Thank you for the great info. Clint Mello http://www.myrockrealestate.com

]]> By: Mike http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/phoenix-real-estate-stats-%e2%80%93-not-always-what-they-seem%e2%80%a6/#comment-52330 Mike Mon, 04 May 2009 02:34:12 +0000 http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/?p=2214#comment-52330 Great Job!.... Very clear and convincing prospect. *<em>*<em>Mike´s last blog post..<a href="http://www.stopforeclosuredesk.com/foreclosure/foreclosure-process/">Foreclosure Process</a></em></abbr></abbr></em></em> Great Job!…. Very clear and convincing prospect.

**Mike´s last blog post..Foreclosure Process</abbr></abbr>

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