Pollack who?
Elliot Pollack is a Phoenix area commercial real estate developer and heads up a well respected economic and real estate consulting company. His web site, ArizonaEconomy.com, is chocked full of information.
At a recent Urban Land Institute conference — Arizona Real Estate Trends Day, Pollack gave this presentation. I wish I’d had the chance to hear it, but at least we have the slides. If you like real estate and economic charts and have any interest in Phoenix real estate, it’s worth a look.
According to Pollack:
The bottom of the housing market may occur in 2008 or 2009, but a full recovery will probably take 3-5 years.
Whether the bottom is 2008 or 2009 doesn’t matter because both years will be unimpressive.
But:
The long-term economic outlook remains favorable.
The year is early. I suspect even Pollack would say that anything can happen. In either direction… Bottom line is, now more than ever it is good to pay attention and stay on top of the market conditions. Individual circumstances will weigh heavily in whether now is the time for you to buy or sell real estate.
Hat tip to Cash at REIPipeline.
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Jay,
I tend to agree with your assesment that each indicidual has a different set of circumstances to determine when is a good time to invest in real estate or not. Here in the Santa Barbara and Montecito areas, we are already starting to see a substantial increase in investors just in the last 2 months.
3-5 year recovery
I think this is incredibly important and that many young or inexperienced investors and home buyers are overlooking the amount of time a recovery will take. I think some people don’t consider that the “bottom” is just the beginning and that, in many cases, a decision to buy needs to be backed by a commitment to hold.
So investors are like guys who like to fish. The look for some really big ones at the bottom.
I have to agree both Tucson and Phoenix Arizona are amazing for growth but the real estate markets just got overbuilt even for Arizona, good news is where much closer to the true bottom then the top and once it does turn everyone that ever even thought about buying during the boom but didn’t will be purchasing as soon as they feel the worst is behind us. I see a lot of pent up demand about to show up once the market “seems” to be back on the way up.
Thats interesting they think the bottom will come in a year or 2 but long term the recovery could take 5 years. I would have thought once we hit bottom things would ramp up a little faster.
Jay,
The QC/Hunt Hwy corridor is completely saturated with foreclosures/short sales heading to foreclosure. Any speculation on how long it will take to sell those off? We get so many per month!!
Amy – it is indeed crazy out that way. Just complete wild speculation on my part but I’d say 3 years.
Times like these make me think of Warren Buffet’s comment..”be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
I guess that was a too long to recover the phoenix real estate market.. Possibly it can recover in 2years if they will do it as soon as possible