I really only have one rule on this blog, and that’s to not discuss politics. But when politics and real estate collide, that rule goes out the window.
In case you hadn’t heard, there is a Presidential election this year. (I know, it seems like the campaigning started two years ago…)
Forbes.com published an article Wednesday (sorry, I’m behind in my feed reader) that briefly outlines what each major candidate plans to do about the sub-prime lending crisis. I’ll give you their thoughts, then you get mine…
Republicans:
Mitt Romney, John McCain and Mike Huckabee haven’t announced formal plans. They support the current “Bush-Paulson” plan that calls for a short-term freeze in some rates and deferring much to local government.
Rudy Giuliani wants “kid gloves” when it comes to government regulation.
Democrats:
Barack Obama wants to create a “universal mortgage credit” giving homeowners making under $50K that don’t itemize a 10% tax credit. He also proposes a government fund to help some avoid foreclosure. He has other plans for government oversight and regulation as well.
Hillary Clinton wants a 90–day moratorium on foreclosure proceedings, a five-year freeze on interest rates and a $5 billion government sponsored fund to help out borrowers with negative equity. She also wants to increase the size of the Federal Housing Authority.
John Edwards supports current freeze plans and wants to add halting of foreclosures until lenders provide assistance to borrowers such as reducing interest rates, converting loans or forgiving parts of a loan. He also wants increased government tracking and oversight.
The Phoenix Real Estate Guy:
I don’t know where Hillary is getting her $5 billion from. The last thing the tax code needs is to be added to. Personally, I wish government would just stay the hell out of the real estate market. “Markets”, be they stock, real estate or pork bellies tend to reach equilibrium on their own. More government intervention is just likely to chase the problem, and much like a dog chasing its tail, it’ll never catch it and wouldn’t know what to do with it if it did.
Let the markets adjust as they will. Fundamental economic laws of supply and demand will play out and things will eventually settle down.
Technorati Tags: Presidential race, subprime crisis, talking heads
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Jim Duncan 01.27.08 at 8:00 pm
(seriously, this isn’t spam)
Don’t forget about Ron Paul.
spend six minutes and listen to his take on the subprime problem.
He is the only one who seems to recognize this.
Mark Eibner 01.27.08 at 9:18 pm
Hey Jay-Great to have met you at Inamn NYC.
Ill start this and I am NOT afraid to talk politics! We are faced with the worst choice that has ever been given to us by our keepers! Here’s a couple of posts.
http://www.realestatezealot.co.....o-the.html
http://www.realestatezealot.co.....e-gov.html
What I find most interesting is that the internet is really fueling a new surge in truth…Ron Paul and the type of statement he is making could have NEVER made it even a few years ago pre-Google and pre youtube. The media is starting to be usurped by “People Media” and THEY HATE IT.
Anyway I am with you on “get the hell out of my life”. Big Brother an dall his supporters that want to have a Nanny State need to WAKE up.
I will have your videos and post up tonight.
Mark
Mark Eibner 01.27.08 at 10:14 pm
Here ya go Jay- your social sites will follow tommorow;
http://www.brokeriptv.com/jay-.....an-connect
http://www.realestatezealot.co.....on-ph.html
http://activerain.com/blogsvie.....oenix-Real
Christoph Schweiger 01.27.08 at 11:30 pm
I am completely with you on this one. The markets should regulate themselves with minimal interference of government.
AZ Foreclosure Realtor 01.28.08 at 8:31 am
I completely agree! Here’s the kicker- putting a 90 day moratorium on foreclosures doesn’t fix the original problem that got the debtors into foreclosure in the first place! All it’s doing to prolonging the inevitable. Then what happens when the 90 days are completed? We’ll have a BIG surge of foreclosures hitting the market- certain to plunge neighborhoods even worse. I’m ok allowing the debtors to not be taxed on forgiven debt. But messing with the foreclosure process has problems written all over it.
Shailesh 01.28.08 at 10:30 am
Jay,
Two ways to fix the subprime mess:
1. Do away with STATED income loans for everyone other than self-employed borrowers with greater than 680 credit scores
2. Strictly enforce 30/40 DTI rule
Problem solved. No need for government oversight or extra regulation.
Maureen Francis 01.28.08 at 12:19 pm
None of those plans sound very well thought out. And since none of the candidates have any hope of being in office for a year, well, we will be in a different situation by then. I don’t think it will be better, unfortunately. But then, I am in a unique market, Detroit, and we are ‘ahead’ of most of the rest of the country in terms of the real estate slowdown. That does not mean we will emerge sooner than other markets, of course.
As for the government keeping their hands out of this, that is tough. I think we do need some kind of government assistance. Too much is at stake in terms of the nation’s economy.
Jayson 01.28.08 at 1:08 pm
I’m not too sure about which plan will work and which will fail but I do think the government needs to help the market out…at least a little. Maybe something as small as enforcing better lending standards and working to educate consumers about spending habits, what they can afford etc..
I just think we’re too far along and too many industries are at stake to sit back and wait for a correction, but I’ve been wrong before.
Have any government programs worked in the past - New Deal??
John in Edmonton 01.28.08 at 1:14 pm
Jay,
As a Canadian outsider looking in, I think that you have the right perspective on the American real estate fiasco. Leave the market alone. It moves too fast for a lumbering bureaucracy to react to.
Plus, nobody jumped up to help the poor buyers when prices were spiraling into the stratosphere; so why are they wanting to help the sellers keep their profits? Doesn’t seem “fair” to me.
The problem that you’re facing is that these sub-prime mortgages are a hot topic, and politicians love photo-ops. As a generalization, the American public vote for the most charismatic person who tells them what they want to hear. Right now they want to hear how they are going to keep their homes.
I have to ask… who’s the moron who came up with the idea of lending more money than the value of the secuirty to people who don’t qualify in the first place? Sub-prime is not a smart idea at all!
Best of luck America. You’re really going to need it in this election.
John
Jay - The Phoenix Real Estate Guy 01.28.08 at 5:36 pm
John - thanks so much for sharing an “outsiders” opinion.
“As a generalization, the American public vote for the most charismatic person who tells them what they want to hear.”
That is difficult to argue against…
Everyone - the problem I see with “just a little bit” of government intervention is where the line gets drawn. One man (or woman’s) idea of a “little bit” may be completely different than mine. Government in general has a hard time knowing when to stop. (Tried reading the income tax code lately?)
Maybe hand’s off isn’t the ultimate solution. But Shailesh said it well. Stated income loans and disregard for debt-income ratios have gone a long way toward putting us in the mess we’re in. The idea of granting mortgages to people with no income, employment or credit was just plain stupid.
Kevin Boer 01.28.08 at 10:25 pm
There’s an election this year?
With how front-loaded this election season has been, I fully expect the 2012 primary season to begin at 1pm on January 20th, 2009…minutes after the swearing in of President Obama/Clinton/McCain/Romney.
GO Zone Jeremy 06.22.08 at 10:16 am
Out of those proposals…Obama seems the least intrusive…good thing Hilary or Edwards didn’t win the nomination.