Here's a video from KPNX TV's "Sunday Square Off". Three local folks discuss the Phoenix real estate market.
On the panel are Jay Butler, Director of Realty Studies at ASU's, and oft quoted in the mainstream media; Stan Lund, a Phoenix mortgage broker and President of the Arizona Association of Mortgage Brokers; and Debi Averett, aka "Twist" from the Phoenix blog HousingDoom.com.
To be bluntly honest, I've never been a big fan of Jay Butler. I think a lot of times he needs to remove the rose colored glasses. I've heard Stan Lund's ads on KFYI (a local talk radio show), but that's the extent of my knowledge of him before this. In my humble opinion, he came across way too commercial and full of excuses.
As for Twist, though I risk being ostracized by the online real estate community, I have to admit I like her. Sure, she's a "bubble head", and though I may disagree with her ultimate outlook on the real estate market and economy, she's a sharp lady and does often make valid points. Her "closing statement" is spot on.
(GASP!) a real estate agent saying they like a bubble head?!? What has the world come to? Just note I didn't say I agree with EVERYTHING on Housing Doom. But if you can't at least acknowledge some of their points, then you need to pull your head out of the sand.
Here's the clip. Just over 16 minutes long, but worth a listen…
[googlevideo]http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3134861235365835386&hl=en[/googlevideo]
Technorati Tags: Phoenix real estate market outlook, HousingDoom, Jay Butler, Stan Lund
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Doug Trudeau 08.20.07 at 9:37 pm
Jay - Great blog. Falls right in line with what I said about the herd mentality. What’s your opinion on that? Gritting my teeth, mmm, eeewww, aaahhh, okay, your forced it out of me…I agree with what Twist said about housing prices at her close. Realistic pricing with return to realistic appreciation is a key factor to a recovery.
Will we see a recession? Time will tell. I hope not, but, reality is its possible.
B.R. 08.21.07 at 3:14 pm
Jay, is it really in scary in Phoenix as that video made it sound?
Calie Waterhouse 08.21.07 at 4:56 pm
I too watched this “interview” over the weekend (and I even took notes). I found their statistic quoting to be a little unnerving - simply because they did so without citing sources. Certainly, people in their positions (industry leaders?) should be very careful before spewing this type of “doom and gloom” over our state. What evidence is there to support Stan Lund’s comment about the stability of the Central Phoenix corridor? Where exactly does it say that it will take the r/e industry 1-2 years to rebound? Compared to what?
I questioned the statement made by Jay Butler about now being a good time to buy a house you can afford - I’m sorry is there ever a good time to buy a house that is out-of-your-budget and would force you into foreclosure?
Just my thought.
B.R. 08.22.07 at 10:59 am
Calie, thanks a lot for your perspective. I get really irritated when there is a sensational spin on things that should be a balanced debate.
John L. Wake - Realtor 08.22.07 at 3:27 pm
I’m starting to like Jay Butler. He seemed at little “disengaged” but that suits a professor.
Twist was reasonable.
Lund will get better with experience.
homes 08.22.07 at 7:18 pm
Great balls of fire, it’s only a matter of reasoning.
Todd Tarson 08.23.07 at 5:17 pm
Debi is certainly thousands of times more reasonable to read and react to than say a Keith Brand would be.
As a Realtor myself, yes I was pleased with the extra business that came my direction from investors in the middle of this decade. But I told many that the run up could not be sustained in all likelihood. I always suggested to any investor client to speak with a financial adviser before assuming the risks. Some did, and others did not.
The key to the coming foreclosure market is that primary residents replace rental tenants, even if that means establishing a new market level (and obviously lower) for price.
The markets will recover again no matter how far they may fall. I’ve always found a way to spend more on my next home since I’ve been a homeowner throughout the years. I suspect that will happen again the next time I find myself in the market to buy a home.