Winning The Lottery: The Biggest Loser

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The easiest way to avoid foreclosure in 2009-2010?

Make sure you didn’t buy a house in the Phoenix area in 2005-2006.

Ok, so maybe that is over-simplifying it a bit, but my eighty-two-year-old Grandfather has taught me that if you live long enough, you will see it all.

And I can now say with some degree of wisdom:

If you find yourself entering a lottery with a builder to buy a home, chances are you are going to experience a great deal of financial pain in the event that you “win” the lottery.

I hear from people who sit in our local “lottery winner” support groups who find themselves having to deal with difficult choices regarding the home they “won” now being worth less than half of what they paid.lottery

Back in 2005, it wasn’t all that uncommon for builders to take peoples names who wanted to buy a house and then pick a few each month who could have the privilege of buying one of their homes.

Our builder had the same problem other builders had – too many people wanting to buy a house and he wasn’t able to build them fast enough. So the builder set up a lottery and within 2 weeks, the builder had a list of 150 people who put down $5,000 to enter the lottery.

And each month, the plan was that he was going to “release” 3 available lots and pick 3 winners who could then vie for one of the three lots to build a home on.

The first month went by and my name didn’t get drawn.

“Oh no! This meant that next month, he was going to raise the price by at least $5,000!  What was I going to do if I didn’t win the next month or the month after that?”

Lucky for me, I didn’t have to wait long – somehow the magic ping-pong-ball-chute shot my lucky number out in month number two.

Sweet! Now all I had to do was plop down $75,000 as earnest money and a year later I could move into my new house.

And so it began.

I was in the process of short selling my house in 2010 and didn’t even see it coming.

I was excited!

I had just won the lottery.

Someone just failed to mention that winning that lottery meant you were going to be a winner — a winner in the biggest loser.

In hindsight, I have to kind of chuckle at the concept of entering a lottery to buy a home – but at the time, it seemed like something perfectly educated, sane people did. Heck, quite a few smart people I knew would just refinance their primary residence take the cash and enter a lottery for an investment property. Those people essentially just doubled-down on a pair of eights in blackjack – forget entering the lottery.

But now I know.

And if I live long enough to see another home builder hold a lottery for the chance to buy a home, you won’t find me standing in line buying a ticket.

Or anyone else who has lived long enough to have seen what happens to past lottery winners.


McHoodAbout the Author:Justin McHood calls himself a “Mortgage Commentator” and works for Academy Mortgage Corporation. You can find his loan officers at Ten Day Close and read more of his thoughts on the mortgage business on Zillow’s Mortgages Unzipped Blog. You can also find him at most East Valley Friday Nights gatherings. He’s the one in the blue shirt.

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In Toronto I've seen people lining up around the block to buy condos from builders. In my opinion, if you’re lining up for a deal then it’s probably not a deal. It’s good to see people sharing and learning from past experiences.

My husband and I were extremely depressed one day when we went to a new large home selling event in one of California's Los Angeles area booming desert towns. We talked all day on how we should have been there the week before to pick up a couple of investment properties, now there was a huge waiting list for people to buy one of the homes. We got on a list with hundreds of other people, and waited until we received a lucky call that we could now make our purchase. By the time the lucky call came, real estate was starting to tank and values were going down rapidly. The call came and we gleefully said "no thanks!". That was crazy!

“Some of the worse cases were of people being sick off work and still going to the gym or those insisting on exercise in 30-degree heat. It’s more than just the number of hours they exercise each week. It’s about… the reasons behind why they might be exercising,” she went on to say.

Seems that the winners of the home lotteries were really the losers. Now those homes are being dumped for pennies on the dollar. Maybe we should all be buying lottery tickets instead.

So many people bought into all the hype and even camped out doors before a new subdivision opened for the opportunity to buy a home. The lottery system evolved next and soon "winners" were all over the valley. One of my friends "won" the right to buy in DC Ranch. Her house foreclosed 2 months ago. Sad.
.-= Carmen Brodeur´s last blog ..Act Fast To Get Your Desert Mountain Foreclosure! =-.

@GA Short Sale Agent,

Please go delete your comment.

Before my wife sees it.

She BEGGED me to walk away from my 75k deposit and I said NO WAY HONEY, I AM RIGHT ON THIS ONE!

And what could have been a 75k mistake turned into a 500k mistake.

And if you don't delete your comment, I am in danger of having her frame it and tell me (once again) I TOLD YOU SO.

:)
.-= Justin McHood´s last blog ..Go Play In Traffic =-.

lol. I nearly forgot about all of that. I was in Florida during the boom. I actually put $2000 down for the opportunity to buy into some condo conversion. I backed out and changed my mind. Those $250,000 "apartments" are now selling for $125,000. What a wild ride.
.-= GA Short Sale Agent´s last blog ..New HAFA Section Coming Real Soon. =-.

@Chuck,

Ha! I can only hope that I live long enough to see the cycle again - and hopefully the lessons I learned in the first one will keep me from making the same mistake twice.

@Evergreen Real Estate,

If you find the crystal ball (that works) please ship it to Phoenix where Jay and I promise to keep it under lock and key at #RETT and only let people we like stare into it. Thanks for sharing that -- the truth is always better than fiction, you can't make this stuff up.

@John,

I wish I knew you in 2004.

And I wish you would have hit me in the head with a baseball bat when I told you of my big idea.

So now that you know me, if you hear me talking some kind of crazy thought, get your bat out and whack me a few.

My wife will thank you.
.-= Justin McHood´s last blog ..Go Play In Traffic =-.

A California guy told me in 2004, since he had just seen it in California, "As soon as you see a picture in the newspaper of people lined up to buy a new home, it's time to sell." I would say he would be early using that criteria but the point is well taken. It was the summer of 2004, I believe, when I first heard of people lining up to buy new homes. Home sales peaked in the summer of 2005 and prices peaked in the summer of 2006.
.-= John Wake´s last blog ..Famous blonde financial pundit expects double dip in U.S. housing market =-.

Hi Justin,

Great interpretation of recent history! We in the Denver real estate market jumped through the same goofball hoops. The combination of market appreciation, slow construction schedules and low earnest money deposits made investing in new homes attractive to a lot of investors. In fact, one year my on-site partner wrote three contracts with one buyer, each had $1,500 earnest money for $120k homes which were appreciating at 10% a year and construction was taking about a year!

Those were exciting times and we all thought purchasing was a no-brainer. I moved a family to Evergreen in 2005 from Phoenix-- he describes the timing of selling his Phoenix house as "the day before the market crashed" He came out here and bought a home that I found-- it came on the market THAT DAY, we felt like we had to make a full price offer, basically negotiated nothing on the inspection, and overall felt like we had procured a windfall. We were nervous the whole time since there was a back up offer from the very beginning.

Now looking back everything feels like we were under artificial urgency and can't imagine where all that pressure came from.

But the fact is; if you wanted to buy a house back then, you had to play by the supply and demand rules that were affecting the market then... However silly they were.

I suppose if I was a better real estate agent in 2005 I would have recommended to all my Buyers to PLEASE WAIT UNTIL 2010 TO BUY. But alas, my crystal ball was, not functioning.
.-= Evergreen real estate´s last blog ..Evergreen Real Estate Values So Far In 2010 =-.

I have an even better story; my good friend flew 2,000 miles to enter a lottery on a $300K condo. He got a call a week later telling him that he WON and that since he won he can be entered to "Win" a chance to buy the $1.8M Penthouse. My friend being a savvy businessman jumped at the chance to "Win" the penthouse. So he took out loans and entered the lottery. Would you believe; he WON! He was so happy you would think that he was given the condo for free! That was 2007! As the saying goes" A fool and his money are soon parted". How can we all be fools at the same time! Good times...where's my drink;0)!
.-= Chuck´s last blog ..The Secrets of Successfully Marketing and Selling of Your Home in a Challenging Market =-.

In Toronto I've seen people lining up around the block to buy condos from builders. In my opinion, if youu00e2u0080u0099re lining up for a deal then itu00e2u0080u0099s probably not a deal. Itu00e2u0080u0099s good to see people sharing and learning from past experiences.

My husband and I were extremely depressed one day when we went to a new large home selling event in one of California's Los Angeles area booming desert towns. We talked all day on how we should have been there the week before to pick up a couple of investment properties, now there was a huge waiting list for people to buy one of the homes. We got on a list with hundreds of other people, and waited until we received a lucky call that we could now make our purchase. By the time the lucky call came, real estate was starting to tank and values were going down rapidly. The call came and we gleefully said "no thanks!". That was crazy!

u00e2u0080u009cSome of the worse cases were of people being sick off work and still going to the gym or those insisting on exercise in 30-degree heat. Itu00e2u0080u0099s more than just the number of hours they exercise each week. Itu00e2u0080u0099s aboutu00e2u0080u00a6 the reasons behind why they might be exercising,u00e2u0080u009d she went on to say.

Seems that the winners of the home lotteries were really the losers. Now those homes are being dumped for pennies on the dollar. Maybe we should all be buying lottery tickets instead.

Symptomatic of too much money chasing too little inventory.

So many people bought into all the hype and even camped out doors before a new subdivision opened for the opportunity to buy a home. The lottery system evolved next and soon "winners" were all over the valley. One of my friends "won" the right to buy in DC Ranch. Her house foreclosed 2 months ago. Sad.
.-= Carmen Brodeuru00c2u00b4s last blog ..Act Fast To Get Your Desert Mountain Foreclosure! =-.

@GA Short Sale Agent,

Please go delete your comment.

Before my wife sees it.

She BEGGED me to walk away from my 75k deposit and I said NO WAY HONEY, I AM RIGHT ON THIS ONE!

And what could have been a 75k mistake turned into a 500k mistake.

And if you don't delete your comment, I am in danger of having her frame it and tell me (once again) I TOLD YOU SO.

:)
.-= Justin McHoodu00c2u00b4s last blog ..Go Play In Traffic =-.

lol. I nearly forgot about all of that. I was in Florida during the boom. I actually put $2000 down for the opportunity to buy into some condo conversion. I backed out and changed my mind. Those $250,000 "apartments" are now selling for $125,000. What a wild ride.
.-= GA Short Sale Agentu00c2u00b4s last blog ..New HAFA Section Coming Real Soon. =-.

@Chuck,

Ha! I can only hope that I live long enough to see the cycle again - and hopefully the lessons I learned in the first one will keep me from making the same mistake twice.

@Evergreen Real Estate,

If you find the crystal ball (that works) please ship it to Phoenix where Jay and I promise to keep it under lock and key at #RETT and only let people we like stare into it. Thanks for sharing that -- the truth is always better than fiction, you can't make this stuff up.

John,

I wish I knew you in 2004.

And I wish you would have hit me in the head with a baseball bat when I told you of my big idea.

So now that you know me, if you hear me talking some kind of crazy thought, get your bat out and whack me a few.

My wife will thank you.
.-= Justin McHoodu00c2u00b4s last blog ..Go Play In Traffic =-.

A California guy told me in 2004, since he had just seen it in California, "As soon as you see a picture in the newspaper of people lined up to buy a new home, it's time to sell." I would say he would be early using that criteria but the point is well taken. It was the summer of 2004, I believe, when I first heard of people lining up to buy new homes. Home sales peaked in the summer of 2005 and prices peaked in the summer of 2006.
.-= John Wakeu00c2u00b4s last blog ..Famous blonde financial pundit expects double dip in U.S. housing market =-.

Hi Justin,

Great interpretation of recent history! We in the Denver real estate market jumped through the same goofball hoops. The combination of market appreciation, slow construction schedules and low earnest money deposits made investing in new homes attractive to a lot of investors. In fact, one year my on-site partner wrote three contracts with one buyer, each had $1,500 earnest money for $120k homes which were appreciating at 10% a year and construction was taking about a year!

Those were exciting times and we all thought purchasing was a no-brainer. I moved a family to Evergreen in 2005 from Phoenix-- he describes the timing of selling his Phoenix house as "the day before the market crashed" He came out here and bought a home that I found-- it came on the market THAT DAY, we felt like we had to make a full price offer, basically negotiated nothing on the inspection, and overall felt like we had procured a windfall. We were nervous the whole time since there was a back up offer from the very beginning.

Now looking back everything feels like we were under artificial urgency and can't imagine where all that pressure came from.

But the fact is; if you wanted to buy a house back then, you had to play by the supply and demand rules that were affecting the market then... However silly they were.

I suppose if I was a better real estate agent in 2005 I would have recommended to all my Buyers to PLEASE WAIT UNTIL 2010 TO BUY. But alas, my crystal ball was, not functioning.
.-= Evergreen real estateu00c2u00b4s last blog ..Evergreen Real Estate Values So Far In 2010 =-.

I have an even better story; my good friend flew 2,000 miles to enter a lottery on a $300K condo. He got a call a week later telling him that he WON and that since he won he can be entered to "Win" a chance to buy the $1.8M Penthouse. My friend being a savvy businessman jumped at the chance to "Win" the penthouse. So he took out loans and entered the lottery. Would you believe; he WON! He was so happy you would think that he was given the condo for free! That was 2007! As the saying goes" A fool and his money are soon parted". How can we all be fools at the same time! Good times...where's my drink;0)!
.-= Chucku00c2u00b4s last blog ..The Secrets of Successfully Marketing and Selling of Your Home in a Challenging Market =-.

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